Historical emissions caused the climate crisis. But it's what we do today that will make or break it, study shows
Humans’ historical greenhouse gas emissions have caused the climate crisis the world is in today. But it’s the amount emitted now and in coming years that will determine whether humanity can avert catastrophic climate changes.
That’s the main finding of a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on Monday, which says that even if the world cut emissions to zero today, there would still be a 42% chance of hitting 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels within a decade. That probability rises to 66% if the world waits until 2029 to reach zero emissions.
Nevertheless, achieving zero emissions this decade is shaping out to be a pipe dream at this point, considering global emissions are still climbing, and set to continue for the next several years. A UN report showed that new and updated pledges on emissions will only cut around 7.5% from current rates by 2030. Additionally, China, the world’s largest emitter, is not set to reach zero emissions until 2060.
The study also shows that if the world emitted nothing today, there is only a 2% chance of breaching the higher, more severe, 2 degrees Celsius warming threshold. But that too increases to much more likely than not — 66% — if the world waits another 35 years before hitting zero emissions.
Related Knowledge Center: Climate science
What began as a theory in the 1890s — that industrial emissions of carbon dioxide could increase global temperatures — had progressed to a scientific fact a century later. Scientists across a range of disciplines are studying the impact of the still-growing concentration of carbon dioxide and other so-called “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere as they call for industrial and governmental policies to slow, then halt, the warming of the planet.