Hillsborough could get too hot to grow its famed strawberries - Tampa Bay Times

Hillsborough could get too hot to grow its famed strawberries

Hillsborough County is famous for being the nation’s winter strawberry capital, where every year it hosts one of the largest festivals to honor the harvest of its iconic crop.

But the region’s dominance as the primary producer of strawberries in Florida could be at risk because of climate change.

By 2050, Hillsborough will be too hot to grow strawberries, according to a report from the Environmental Defense Fund published in May. The report says ideal conditions for farming the fruit could shift north into Marion County, home of Ocala.

“Based on the current market conditions, it’s a pretty significant hit for an industry that’s struggling under land development pressure and narrow profit margins,” said Dawn Shirreffs, Florida director for the Environment Defense Fund, a nonprofit advocacy group studying how to combat climate change.

Rising heat and more dangerous days

Strawberries are the state’s most prominent crop after oranges.

Nationally, California dominates. But Florida’s $400 million berry industry has a short window when it’s the country’s primary grower in the wintertime.

Much of the farming is done in Hillsborough County outside of Tampa, in and around Plant City. Hillsborough has the most strawberry farms in the state and holds nearly 88% of farming land in Florida devoted to growing the fruit, according to federal data. It’s been an ideal region because it currently sits in what’s known as the “goldilocks zone,” where precipitation and temperature conditions are neither too hot nor too cold for farming strawberries.

But that is changing.

Average temperatures in Hillsborough County are trending to rise 4% by 2050 during the state’s strawberry season that runs between October and April, the report found.

Highs of 78 degrees going up to 80 on average will make it more difficult for strawberries to survive. If trends continue this way, the report said, Hillsborough farmers would produce 11% fewer strawberries.

The chance of dangerous days for strawberries will also be higher. Temperatures exceeding 85 degrees can kill the fruit. Days with harmful conditions in Hillsborough during the growing season are set to jump 50% in 27 years, the report found.

“There’ll be much more frequent and dangerous days over 85 degrees to where growing is just not going to be profitable,” Shirreffs said.

The region will also have a 7% higher vapor pressure deficit, which is how much water the atmosphere can hold, meaning that strawberries will require more watering. All these factors could push Hillsborough out of the goldilocks zone.

Instead, the conditions to grow strawberries would be just right more than 100 miles north.

Halfway into the century, Marion County’s average temperatures will rise closer to what Hillsborough’s have been this decade.

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Solutions to growing pressures?

Berry farmers need to start planning for rising temperatures, Shirreffs said.

That may mean expanding north into Marion County, though that can be expensive and it can be difficult to find land. Even then, the risk of dangerous days for strawberries are also expected to rise further north.

More severe hurricanes will also be more likely because of climate change, which can delay crop planting like with Hurricane Ian last year.

But there are other ways to limit impacts.

Wish Farms in Plant City is working on new strawberry varieties like the Sweet Sensation that can grow faster and are more resistant to diseases. They could be planted later to avoid the hottest days.

“We work closely with the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences to develop new berry varieties that not only taste great, but that are also suitable to our growing conditions here in Florida,” said Wish Farms’ public relations manager Nick Wishnatzki in an emailed statement. “Farmers are always adapting, and we will continue to do so for the next 100 years.”

The report also mentions investing in shading, cooling, automation and aquifer recharging technologies.

The budding problem of climate change adds to the myriad of issues local strawberry farmers have to deal with, Shirreffs said.

Matt Parkes, a fourth generation farmer at Parkesdale Farms, said many strawberry farmers aren’t worried about climate change driving them out of Hillsborough County — they’re more worried about rapid development. As the region’s housing market has boomed, there may not be enough space to grow more strawberries, he said, and they also face stiff competition from Mexican imports.

“If we’re going to continue to grow, we’re gonna have to find somewhere that is not a desirable area to be,” Parkes said.

He added that Parkesdale Farms, which has been in Hillsborough since 1956, has no intention of selling. Rather, they’ll have to make use of what space they have and wait for some climate controlling technologies to become more economical.

“One thing we’re doing right now is trying to figure out how to maximize the use for the future,” Parkes said. “But until power gets more affordable or it makes enough sense to be able to do climate control, we’re going to depend on Mother Nature to give us the sun and the temperatures that we need.”