Heading to Belem with optimism
These are challenging times for those of us struggling to avert climate catastrophe. Climate denialism is resurging, fuelled by disinformation and misinformation campaigns. Multilateral systems are under strain, fossil fuel interests are emboldened, and the international climate process is faltering.
Yet, WWF approaches COP30 in Belem with optimism and hope that momentum will be rebuilt. This confidence rests Brazil’s leadership since COP29 in Baku, the potential for a disruptive outcome in the Amazon, and economic inevitability of the energy transition.
At WWF, we are approaching COP30 in Belém with a strong sense of determination revitalise momentum in the UN climate process. Our optimism is grounded in Brazil’s leadership since COP29 in Baku, the potential for transformative progress in the Amazon, and the undeniable economic momentum behind the energy transition.
Brazil has framed this COP around implementation, using the Global Stocktake from Dubai (2023) as a foundation to assess progress and define the next steps. This approach provides a clear framework for action and sets the stage for a strong political signal that combines the negotiation outcomes with thematic discussions highlighting real world solutions, civil society contributions through the Global Ethical Stocktake, and engagement from non-state actors aligned to the Paris Agreement goals.
WWF expects countries, especially the G20, to deliver stronger national climate plans. Too few countries have sufficiently strengthened their emissions plans under the Paris Agreement by the agreed deadline.
We want to see an ambitious nature package approved, taking advantage of this first COP in the Amazon to link addressing climate change with protecting and enhancing nature, leveraging the synergies between the two crises, and creating greater policy coherence.
We need a clearly defined pathway for phasing out fossil fuels, scaling up renewable energy and energy efficiency, while protecting nature and people’s rights. It must be done in a fair and equitable manner.
COP30 must finalise the adaptation indicators proposed under the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience and increase action and support to strengthen resilience in the face of escalating climate impacts.
Finally, we need a stronger and more effective Global Climate Action Agenda, with adequate capacity and instruments to help close the gaps on mitigation, adaptation, and resilience.
The formal negotiating mandate at COP30 is a modest one, and it risks deadlock. Brazil could pursue a cover decision, as at COP26, to consolidate outcomes and help set the agenda for the next round of talks. Such a cover decision could, with the support of the plenary, help short-circuit those aspects of the negotiations that have become bogged down, and allow the Presidency to deliver across the wide range of outcomes it is seeking.
In extreme circumstances, a smaller coalition – like the Copenhagen Accord – might be needed to inject momentum and avoid stalemate.
Despite delays, the Paris Agreement remains resilient. Multilateralism, though imperfect, is essential for global challenges like the climate crisis. Science will prevail over misinformation and disinformation. And we have faith in the economics of the energy transition. A climate-friendly economic transition is irreversible and cost effective. Renewable energy is cheaper than the fossil alternatives, and inaction carries enormous economic risks.
Climate action is not a burden – it is an engine for economic growth. Conversely, unchecked climate disruption threatens global prosperity and is already causing hundreds of billions of dollars of annual losses. COP30 is a pivotal opportunity to deliver a strong outcome and restore momentum behind the Paris Agreement.