Growth of climate regulations gives resilience against US policy changes

The growth of worldwide climate-related policies gives strength to the fight against climate change, despite the new US Government’s policy changes, according to new research.

The latest annual report from Oxford University’s Climate Policy Monitor shows consistent growth in climate regulation since 2020 in all parts of the world.

Thom Wetzer, associate professor in law and finance and co-director of the Climate Policy Monitor, said: “The global mushrooming of such rules means that even if requirements weaken in certain jurisdictions, as seen currently in the USA, companies operating across borders will still face increasing global compliance obligations.”

However, the report highlights there are many gaps, and the rules vary in ambition, comprehensiveness, and stringency, with few meeting the Climate Policy Monitor’s criteria on all three.

Professor Thomas Hale, professor in global public policy and co-director of the Climate Policy Monitor, said: “This growth in rules – and an increase in their ambition, comprehensiveness and stringency – will need to accelerate in order to keep humankind safe.”

Under current policies, the United Nations Environment Programme estimates temperatures will rise by a catastrophic 3°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, double the 1.5°C committed to in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Severe flooding and others types of extreme weather could become more frequent if climate targets are not met (Image: Thom Airs Media) Professor Hale added: “Crucially, the policies will have to be rigorously implemented, not just exist on the books.”

The monitor currently covers the G20, whose nations account for almost 80 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, plus 11 additional countries that bring economic and geographical diversity.

It tracks climate-related policies, including legally enforced rules imposed by governments on themselves and on companies operating in their jurisdictions.

The monitor’s data also shows 27 countries having put in place rules to green their public procurement.

Public procurement, or government spending through contracts, represents anywhere between 13 and 20 per cent of countries’ GDP, according to the World Bank 2020.

This means potentially huge amounts of public spending are being re-routed towards products and suppliers that align with national climate objectives.

Sweden, for example, aims for 65 per cent of all newly purchased heavy buses to be electric, while Turkey has introduced new rules to limit the emissions intensity of its procured cement, and the UK has rules requiring suppliers bidding for government contracts of £5 million or more to have transition plans in place.

The hub is a collaboration between the Blavatnik School of Government and the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme, aiming to build the evidence base and capacity to advance effective, rigorous, and equitable net zero regulation and policy.