Grid warnings continue, but who is paying attention? - West Virginia MetroNews

Grid warnings continue, but who is paying attention? - WV MetroNews

You cannot read or watch the news regularly without seeing stories about climate change. Those stories inevitably include quotes from officials and interest groups stating the urgency of replacing fossil fuels with renewables for power generation.

Earlier this month, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai that “There shouldn’t be any more coal fired power plants permitted anywhere in the world. That’s how you can do something for health, and the reality is we’re not doing it.”

Well, some countries aren’t doing it—China and India for example—but the U.S. is steadily migrating away from coal-fired power plants. Coal-fired generation now accounts for only one-fifth of the electric sector, down from more than half of all power generation 25 years ago.

These are all relevant stories, but what is too often missing are corresponding stories about the increasing threat to energy reliability in this country. Grid operators are sounding the warnings, but they do not seem to get much attention in the media or from policy makers.

Just this month, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released a comprehensive report identifying “potential future electricity reliability supply shortfalls under normal as well as extreme conditions.”

NERC is a non-profit regulatory authority which is required by law under the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to independently evaluate the long-term reliability of the North American bulk power system (BPS). It has no political agenda, so its report is data-driven and dry… and very relevant.

NERC confirms the warnings of the regional power grids: “Capacity deficits are projected in areas where future generator retirements are expected before [emphasis added] enough replacement resources are in service to meet rising demand forecast.”

Mark Olson, manager of reliability assessments at NERC, said in a conference call with reporters, “Generally, we’re seeing more areas at risk during the next ten years than we’ve been reporting and in the past few years. Some of the contributing factors to that are higher demand forecasts that (are) causing either tightening of reserves or even some potential shortfalls.”

In layman terms, “potential shortfalls” means an increased possibility of rolling blackouts.

This is more evidence that the country’s transition away from fossil fuels with renewables as replacements is not an equal one-for-one process. Even if it were, energy demand is increasing more rapidly, which is placing even more strain on the regional grids to keep up.

Climate change is real and fossil fuel power generation is a significant contributor. Therefore, media coverage is essential, even if some of it is built around hyperbole. However, there is another essential part of the story that is also relevant, and that is the official and unbiased warnings about how this country’s transition in energy production will affect supply and thus Americans’ ability to have all the electricity they need, and when they need it.