The greenest industrial revolution we’ve ever seen

Charlie Robertson is head of macro-strategy at FIM Partners, and author of The Time Travelling Economist.

Why was it England, rather than better-educated Scotland, that drove the industrial revolution? Because England had the good fortune to sit on massive coalfields offering cheap, accessible energy. 

For Africa and the Middle East, wealth over the past 50 years has accrued to those with similar geographic luck in the form of oil and natural gas. As much as 39 per cent of the world’s oil supply and 24 per cent of its natural gas came from these regions in 2024, according to the 2025 Energy Institute Report.  

Today, one of the cheapest energy sources is above the ground, via solar, not below the ground in fossil fuels. This offers huge benefits to these regions, as well as the global climate. 

So why does just 3 per cent of global solar generation come from the Middle East and Africa, as against 40 per cent in China and 15 per cent in the US? 

The answer, as usual, is money. For the Gulf, the cost of fossil fuel extraction is so low that solar has only recently become competitive. For Africa, the primary challenge is finding the capital to invest in any new power generation, whether it’s solar or a dirty fuel like coal.

However, change is under way. In 2013, there was less than 1 TWh of solar generation in either the Middle East or Africa. By 2024, the totals were 47 TWh and 21 TWh, respectively. The UAE generated 15 TWh, more than the UK in 2024 (yes, it rains a bit in the UK), while in Africa more than half of all solar generation came from South Africa and (7), Egypt (6) and Morocco (2). 

For Gulf leaders, solar power is reliable and enables them to export a higher share of their fossil fuel production. Saudi Arabia wants to generate 50 per cent of its electricity from renewables by 2030. One of the world’s biggest single-site solar power plants, the Al Shuaibah power plant by Acwa and Badeel, came online earlier this year. 

For Africa, it is no coincidence that the countries with relatively plentiful savings, South Africa and Egypt, have been able to invest more in this new technology.  

For many in sub-Saharan Africa, there will be continued reliance on external funding, which is capped by already high debt/GDP ratios. Organisations like the AfDB and BII, the EIB, the EBRD and the World Bank, and European export finance guarantors such as PIDG and UKEF, can help. They can lend at lower rates than those implied by double-digit Eurobond yields.   

Africans are the lowest emitters of carbon in the world. The falling cost of solar equipment means the continent is likely to see the greenest ever industrial revolution. The speed of this will be determined by the willingness of external financiers to price global climate change accurately in their lending rates.