Global warming is not about to cool | Opinion

The Trump administration is doubling down on denial

I look out my window and I see the dryness, Southwest Florida changing into Arizona. No cactus here, but there are palm trees turning brown, fronds withering and dropping, wetlands drying up.

And the heat is unyielding. Most people stay indoors whenever they can, soaking up the AC, driving to their jobs, then ducking back into the AC. Many who work out-of-doors are migrants.

Scientists have written about the cause of the warming ad nauseam. Greenhouse emissions, mostly carbon dioxide, hold in the heat and eventually change the climate. Most of this is attributable to human actions, as much as 80% due to burning fossil fuels – coal, petroleum, natural gas. The burning occurs in combustion engines, utility power plants, home heating. Of course, some comes from volcanic eruptions and wildfires. (At this writing, the horrendous wildfire at the north rim of the Grand Canyon is in the news.)

The prognosis for the future is grim. Near-term the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says we can expect above-average temperatures for 2025-26, accompanied by lousy air quality, greater storm frequency and more intense hurricanes.

Longer-term forecasts are even more discouraging. The Climate Action Tracker says there’s no way we can hold temperature increases within the 1.5-degree Celsius limit set by the Paris Accords. Most experts say we have already exceeded that.

How are we doing right now?

· Coal mining is actually increasing. The International Energy Agency reported global production was up 2% to nearly 9 billion metric tons in 2024. China built an average of two new coal plants a week last year.

· Petroleum production continues to rise. OPEC forecasts no reduction in the foreseeable future (the Saudis alone are pumping 9.3 million barrels a day) and permits for new drilling in the U.S. are soaring.

Shell has 700 potential new oil and gas fields in development, and Exxon-Mobil and Chevron are gearing up for expanded production in South America. Global supply will exceed demand over the next several years.

· That excess may soon be needed due to the explosive growth of artificial intelligence. Energy consultant Deloitte says power requirements for AI alone could boost electricity needs by thirty-fold by 2035. As early as next year, the Energy Information Administration forecasts 4.3 trillion kilowatts of electricity will be needed. Much of that energy will come from burning natural gas.

· All of this is happening at a time when everyone seems to be bailing out of emission-less energy. Although nuclear power is making a comeback, most other non-emission sources are taking a hit. The Trump administration has slashed subsidies for everything green, and solar and wind installations are forecast to drop by 17% and 20% over the next decade. Development of once-promising things like hydrogen fuel cells has been put on the back burner. Airbus, BP and Air Products say hydrogen development will take longer and cost much more than expected.

Meanwhile temperatures continue to rise.

And there’s no reason to expect any real change. One might hope for moderating fossil fuel use or promoting carbon capture or seriously debating a carbon tax.

But there’s no evidence any of that is going to happen.

Instead the Trump administration is doubling down on denial. Drawing on earlier findings that CO2 is different from the “air pollutants” Congress authorized the EPA to regulate, those now in power claim the EPA has no right to block greenhouse emissions.

The deck is completely stacked against any sort of relief.

What can be done? Turn up the AC and try to stay cool.

Dave Trecker of Naples is a PhD chemist who has written extensively about climate change.