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Global Seasonal Climate Update for August-September-October 2026

wmo.int · last updated

Outlook for Oceanic Drivers for the Next Season: For the August–October 2026 (ASO 2026) season, the multi-model ensemble (MME) indicates a rapid development toward strong El Niño conditions. The seasonal average SST anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 2.9°C during ASO 2026, with the intensification trajectory peaking in November. The spread among individual forecast systems remains narrow, reflecting high forecast confidence.

In the Indian Ocean, a positive IOD phase is also expected to develop, reaching an ASO 2026 seasonal mean value of 0.6°C. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is forecast to remain generally warm, with SSTs in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic remaining above normal.

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