Global Energy Crisis Pushes U.S. Natural Gas Forward Prices Higher Despite Mild Weather, Strong Production

Natural Gas Intelligence · last updated March 12, 2026 – 7:46 AM

U.S. forward natural gas prices have been propped up by conflict in the Middle East as global commodity prices remain elevated and uncertainty persists over exactly how long the war will last and sustain strong demand for American LNG exports.

Chart titled “NGI’s Northeast Regional Key Forward Basis Curves” showing forward natural gas basis prices for Algonquin Citygate, Iroquois Zone 2 and Transco Zone 6 NY from March 2026 through April 2028. The curves highlight strong winter seasonality, with basis prices spiking above $14/MMBtu at Algonquin Citygate and Iroquois Zone 2 in winter 2026-2027 and again near $10/MMBtu in winter 2027-2028, while Transco Zone 6 NY peaks near $6/MMBtu. Summer basis prices fall near or below $1/MMBtu across the Northeast markets, illustrating the region’s winter natural gas demand premium.

At A Glance:

Gains come despite mild forecasts
Strong exports outweigh near record production
Northeast winter prices rising

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