The Global Avocado Supply Chain Is Expanding but Climate Risk Could Change the Game-Expert View by Spherical Insights

The global avocado industry is entering a new phase of expansion. Production is increasing, international trade is reaching new markets and consumer demand continues to support investment across farming, processing, packaging and logistics. But behind this growth story is a growing uncertainty: climate change and extreme weather could determine how much avocado reaches global markets, at what quality and at what price.

The timing is particularly significant. In July 2026, Rabobank’s global avocado update highlighted continued structural growth in supply while warning that El Niño could create greater variability in yields, fruit size and quality during the 2026/27 season. Rather than producing a uniform global shortage, weather impacts are expected to differ across producing regions and growing seasons, potentially increasing market and price volatility.

The climate concern has intensified in September. The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the developing 2026 El Niño is becoming very strong and is expected to influence global weather patterns into early 2027, increasing the risk of unusual heat and rainfall patterns across agricultural regions.

For the avocado industry, the message is clear: the next phase of growth will not depend only on planting more trees. It will increasingly depend on building a supply chain capable of surviving climate variability.

The Global Avocado Boom Is Accelerating

Global avocado production and trade have expanded significantly over the past decade. According to FAOSTAT-based estimates cited in recent industry analysis, global avocado production reached approximately 11.2 million tonnes in 2024, compared with around 10.5 million tonnes in 2023. Production has more than doubled over the longer term, reflecting the rapid expansion of avocado cultivation and consumption.

International trade is expanding as well. FAO estimates indicate that global avocado exports increased by about 13% in 2025 to approximately 3.3 million tonnes, demonstrating how rapidly the fruit is becoming integrated into international food supply chains.

But the latest market outlook suggests that the industry’s expansion is entering a more complicated phase. Rabobank expects structural supply growth to continue while climate variability creates greater uncertainty around individual producing regions. El Niño is expected to affect yields, fruit size and quality differently depending on local conditions and harvest timing.

This creates an unusual market dynamic: more avocados are entering the global supply chain, but the reliability of that supply is becoming harder to predict.

The September 2026 El Niño warning adds another layer of uncertainty. The WMO expects above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas during September-November 2026, alongside rainfall patterns associated with a strong Pacific El Niño. For growers, exporters and retailers, weather is therefore becoming not just an agricultural issue but a business variable.

However, the avocado market size was valued at USD 17.40 billion in 2025. The market is projected to grow to USD 35.27 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.32% during the forecast period.

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A More Diversified Global Avocado Supply Chain

The global avocado supply chain is expanding beyond its traditional production centers as growers in Latin America, Africa and other emerging regions increase output for international markets. Mexico remains a dominant producer, while Peru, Colombia and Chile continue to play important roles in global trade. At the same time, African exporters are gaining momentum and creating additional sources of supply for international buyers.

Preliminary FAO data indicate that African avocado exports reached approximately 430,432 tonnes in 2025, rising 16.67% from the previous year. Morocco recorded the strongest growth, with exports increasing about 90% to nearly 141,000 tonnes, making it Africa’s leading exporter. Kenya and South Africa remained major suppliers but experienced declines, partly reflecting logistics challenges associated with disruptions along the Red Sea shipping route. Globally, avocado exports increased around 13% in 2025 to approximately 3.3 million tonnes.

This broader geographic spread is creating opportunities throughout the value chain, including farming technology, irrigation, packaging, cold storage, logistics and processing. For importers and retailers, sourcing from multiple origins can reduce dependence on a single market. However, diversification cannot remove climate risk. Drought, heat, rainfall variability and changing harvest conditions can affect several producing regions simultaneously, making resilient production and flexible sourcing increasingly important to the future of the avocado industry.

Climate and Water Risks Are Reshaping Avocado Production

Climate conditions are becoming a critical factor in the global avocado industry as producers face rising temperatures, irregular rainfall and increasing pressure on water resources. Extreme heat can disrupt flowering and fruit development, while drought may reduce yields and raise irrigation costs. Heavy rainfall can also create disease risks and interfere with harvesting, transport and infrastructure.

The impact of these conditions varies between producing regions. A weather disruption in one country may coincide with a strong harvest elsewhere, creating simultaneous supply shortages and surpluses across global markets. The World Meteorological Organization’s 2026 outlook for a strengthening El Niño has added to concerns over changing temperature and rainfall patterns, potentially increasing uncertainty for growers and international buyers.

Water availability is becoming an equally important issue. Growing avocado production has increased scrutiny of irrigation practices and local water resources. A 2026 FAO study examining avocado value chains highlights the importance of assessing both water and carbon footprints.

For producers, improving water efficiency could become a competitive necessity. Investments in precision irrigation, soil-moisture monitoring, improved water storage, irrigation scheduling and climate-smart farming could help maintain yields while reducing resource pressure. As climate risks intensify, the industry’s focus may shift from simply producing more avocados to producing reliable, marketable fruit with fewer environmental resources.

5. Climate Risk Could Push Avocado Prices Higher and Make Them More Volatile

The relationship between supply and prices is becoming increasingly important for the avocado industry.

When harvests are strong across multiple producing regions, greater availability can place downward pressure on prices. But when adverse weather reduces supply from a major origin at a time when other suppliers cannot compensate, prices can move sharply higher.

This has already occurred in previous avocado seasons. Rabobank’s 2025 outlook noted that U.S. avocado prices had reached record levels amid lower Mexican shipments, with heat and drought affecting fruit development. The challenge is that consumers have become accustomed to year-round avocado availability.

Retailers therefore increasingly need supply from multiple origins, while importers and distributors must manage harvest calendars, shipping schedules and inventory carefully. Climate variability could make this balancing act more difficult.

The 2026 Rabobank outlook expects structural supply growth to continue, but also anticipates greater variability in production and market conditions because of weather effects. For businesses across the supply chain, this could translate into greater emphasis on:

Sourcing diversification + long-term supplier relationships + supply forecasting + cold-chain efficiency + inventory management.

The Industry Is Investing in Climate Resilience

Climate risk does not necessarily mean slower growth. It could instead accelerate investment in agricultural technology and supply-chain resilience.

FAO recommends approaches including improved natural-resource management, access to climate forecasts and information, sustainable technologies and stronger collaboration across tropical-fruit value chains. For avocado producers, this could mean greater use of precision agriculture.

Digital tools can help farmers monitor soil moisture, weather conditions and irrigation requirements. Better forecasting can support decisions about planting, irrigation and harvesting. Improved farm management can also reduce waste and improve consistency.

At the supply-chain level, companies can diversify sourcing across geographical regions and invest in more efficient cold-chain systems.

This is becoming increasingly important because avocado is a perishable product. A disruption at the farm level is only one part of the problem; delays during harvesting, packing, shipping or distribution can also reduce quality and increase losses. Climate resilience therefore needs to extend from the orchard to the supermarket shelf.

1. Latin America

Latin America remains the backbone of the global avocado industry, supported by major producers such as Mexico, Peru and Colombia. Mexico and Peru together supplied roughly 65% of internationally traded avocados in 2024, highlighting the region’s dominant position in global supply. The region is expected to maintain its leadership as worldwide avocado trade expands, with global exports forecast to approach 4.3 million tonnes by 2035.

2. North America

North America is one of the largest avocado consumption markets, with the United States driving regional demand. The U.S. represented approximately 42% of worldwide avocado imports in 2024, purchasing close to 1.2 million tonnes. Strong household consumption, foodservice demand and well-developed retail networks continue to support the market. However, heavy reliance on imports means North American availability and prices remain closely connected to production conditions in Mexico and other supplying countries.

3. Europe

Europe has become an important destination for global avocado producers as consumer interest and imports continue to rise. The European Union imported around 0.79 million tonnes of avocados in 2024, representing approximately 4% growth from the previous year. Suppliers are increasingly diversified, including Peru, Morocco, Israel and South Africa. With consumption expected to continue increasing, Europe is likely to remain a key destination for expanding global avocado production and trade.

The Future Avocado Supply Chain Will Be Built Around Resilience

The avocado industry has considerable room for growth as consumption, international trade and production continue to expand. New producing regions and value-added products such as avocado oil and frozen avocado could further strengthen the market. However, climate change, water stress and extreme weather may create new risks for growers, exporters and retailers. Future success will depend on efficient water management, climate-smart farming, diversified sourcing and stronger supply-chain infrastructure. Producers will also need to balance environmental responsibility with profitability. As climate uncertainty increases, the avocado industry’s competitive advantage may increasingly depend on its ability to maintain reliable, sustainable and resilient supply.

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Conclusion

The avocado industry is moving into an important phase of growth as consumer demand, global trade and cultivation expand across new regions. Yet this growth comes with increasing exposure to drought, heat, water stress and unpredictable weather conditions. These challenges could affect crop yields, quality, prices and the reliability of international supplies. As a result, the industry’s future will depend on how effectively producers and supply-chain companies adapt. Investments in efficient irrigation, climate-smart farming, technology, diversified sourcing and better logistics can reduce these risks. Ultimately, the next chapter of the avocado market will be defined not only by how much it grows, but by how sustainably and reliably it can grow.