Geopolitics could drive oil prices over $100, Citi says

Oil prices could rise to $100 a barrel in the short term thanks to the latest developments out of Saudi Arabia and Russia, according to Citi. The firm revised its third- and fourth-quarter projections for oil balances higher on Monday, after the two countries last week extended their oil output cuts to the end of the year. That pushed U.S. crude oil prices top $90 a barrel for the first time since November 2022. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude ( WTI ) hit $91.70, its highest level since Nov. 8, 2022. Brent crude rose to $94.78, its highest level since Nov. 16, 2022. “Geopolitics could push oil over $100 for a short while,” Edward Morse, Citi’s global head of commodities, said in a note Monday morning. “The Saudi appetite to withhold oil from market, supported by Russia maintaining a certain level of export constraint, points to higher prices in the short term.” However, he also noted that higher near-term prices could mean more downside next year, and that the current $90 level prices look “unsustainable” with faster supply growth than demand. Last week, OPEC issued updated forecasts of solid demand and pointed to a 2023 supply deficit if production cuts remain. As Citi revised fourth-quarter balances it also lowered its demand outlook, citing risks globally and in China. “Chinese refined product exports are a wildcard,” Morse said. “With greater product export quotas provided by the Chinese government, refiners may run harder and export more, easing tight diesel markets, but potentially crashing gasoline markets.” Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, posted its biggest monthly increase this year in August , rising 5.6% – an increase that included a 10.6% surge in gasoline. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Yun Li contributed reporting.