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The Future of Journalism When Prediction Markets ‘Financialize Everything’

Columbia Journalism Review · Emily Bell · last updated

Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are reaping huge profits and reshaping journalism to fit their business interests.

In the 2024 US presidential election, prediction markets achieved a double victory: they accurately predicted the result—prompting unmatchable publicity—and they found in Donald Trump a powerful ally and promoter. Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to and investor in both Kalshi and Polymarket, the two leading companies in the industry. In the past two years, they have exploited a newly friendly regulatory environment to make their profits and popularity soar. Between May and July, the amount being traded on Polymarket and Kalshi doubled, to fifty-three billion dollars a month. They are now worth an estimated sixty billion dollars combined.

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