Francis: A climate parachute parable

Imagine for a moment that humanity has pushed planet Earth out of an airplane.

Metaphorically, we’re talking about not just the tangible components of the planet being tossed out of that plane, but other elements, as well, such as the stable climate that allowed civilization to flourish. The same climate that gave us reliable seasons, predictable coastlines, productive farms, thriving ecosystems and the confidence to build our communities and our economies where we did.

Now imagine that this falling Earth is plummeting toward a volcano.

The bad news is that we are no longer comfortably above the rim. We are already dropping below it.

We can see the lava. We can feel the heat. The wildfires, floods, droughts, crop failures, coral bleaching, heat waves and rising insurance costs are not signs of a crisis that might someday arrive. They are evidence that we are already descending into the cone.

The most dangerous misconception about climate systems changing is that things will somehow stabilize on their own if we simply become more resilient. They won’t.

Resilience and adaptation matter enormously. We need stronger infrastructure, better emergency planning, smarter water systems, more fire-resistant communities and protections for vulnerable populations. But adaptation alone is not a solution to climate change any more than fire retardant is a solution for someone falling into a volcano.

It may help us survive seconds longer, but it does not change our trajectory.

Fortunately, we still have a parachute and a paraglider.

The parachute, slowing our descent, addresses “super pollutants”: methane, hydrofluorocarbons, black carbon and nitrous oxide. While these remain in the atmosphere for a shorter time than carbon dioxide, they pack a far more immediate warming punch.

Pulling this parachute gives us something precious: time.

Reducing methane emissions from oil and gas operations, agriculture, landfills and other sources can slow warming in years rather than decades. Cutting super pollutants is our best weapon to reduce the rate at which temperatures are rising.

And that gives us time to plan our escape, which is where the paraglider comes in. CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases are the dominant force driving long-term warming — and the paraglider is the tool we need to change our trajectory entirely.

The paraglider helps us navigate the carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases, catching thermal waves to lift us higher, and out of danger. This requires transforming energy systems, electrifying transport, protecting forests and building a robust clean-energy economy.

The paraglider is much larger and more difficult to deploy — but it is ultimately the one that determines our fate. But if we only deploy the paraglider without first pulling the parachute, we may slow our long-term trajectory while still plunging too fast to survive — trapped below the rim with no time left to navigate out.

Neither asset alone gets us where we need to go.

The parachute buys us time; the paraglider gets us home.

We must deploy the super-pollutant parachute immediately to slow near-term warming, while simultaneously engaging the larger greenhouse-gas paraglider to stabilize the climate for the long term.

The science is clear: We don’t have to choose between methane and carbon dioxide reduction.

We need both. And we need them now.

The encouraging news is that neither asset is hypothetical. We know where the methane emissions are. We know how to reduce them. We know how to replace fossil fuels with cleaner alternatives. We know how to improve efficiency, protect ecosystems and accelerate climate solutions.

The challenge is no longer whether we know what to do. The challenge is whether we choose to do it at the speed the moment requires.

That is why my focus remains on reducing, replacing, and removing greenhouse gases.

I am motivated because there are people, organizations, businesses, investors, policymakers and communities already working to deploy both “para” assets — and there are incredible economic benefits and opportunities. Those working on decarbonization understand that adaptation without mitigation is insufficient, and that long-term carbon reductions without immediate super-pollutant action leave precious time on the table.

This is exactly the conversation we will continue at the Climate Curve Awards on July 1 featuring Seth Meyers. Climate Curve exists because we believe that climate solutions are not only possible and practical, they are already emerging around us. Our task is to accelerate them, scale them, and bring more people into the work. Tickets for this event are available at climatecurve.org. 

The volcano is real, and we are below the rim.

But the parachute and paraglider are still within reach.

And if we deploy both of them — starting now — we still have a chance not merely to avoid disaster, but to sail toward a safer, financially viable and significantly more stable climate future.