flooded lawn
Article originally published on the COP Central website on 12/5
Climate change is playing hardball against the population. The year 2024 was the hottest in history. People feel the rise in temperature, the increase in disasters – such as the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul and the drought in the Amazon – and the increase in diseases on a daily basis. But few notice the advance of an unexpected adversary: the sea.
The rise in both the level and temperature of the South Atlantic poses a threat to Brazil. A 2024 UN study points to Rio de Janeiro as one of the largest cities in the world that will be affected by rising sea levels. The South Atlantic is expected to rise by 21 centimeters by 2050, making the capital a kind of flooded football field – impossible to play on or live on. According to the study, between 1990 and 2020, the sea level in the state of Rio de Janeiro rose by 13 centimeters.
To give you an idea, according to the 2022 IBGE census, the Maré Complex, in the northern part of the city of Rio de Janeiro, would be flooded to the point of being uninhabitable. Iconic beaches such as Copacabana and Ipanema would be taken over by the sea. The waves would cover almost the entire coastline, causing damage to urban infrastructure, homes, services and commercial establishments. On the northern coast of the state, in Atafona, the ocean has already swallowed more than 500 houses.
Recife, the “Brazilian Venice,” is the capital city most threatened by rising seas in Brazil. A report by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ranks it as the 16th most threatened major city in the world. Furthermore, a study by the Federal Rural University of Pernambuco indicates that 44% of the city is at risk of flooding. More than 200 people live in areas subject to landslides or flooding. In Paraíba, the tide and the damming of rivers are dividing territories and isolating some villages in the Potiguara Indigenous Territory.
In São Paulo, beaches along the entire coast are vulnerable to the advance of the sea. According to the Coastal Erosion Risk Map from the Geological Institute, the following coastlines are at risk: Ubatuba, Praia Grande, São Sebastião, Caraguatatuba, Ilhabela, Bertioga, Guarujá, São Vicente, Itanhaém, Peruíbe, Iguape and Ilha Comprida.
There are examples of this kind in all coastal states. Rising water levels threaten to devastate the more than nine thousand kilometers of Brazilian coastline. Tourism, fishing, the real estate market, infrastructure, municipal and state revenues, and people’s lives will be seriously impacted.
The centuries-old saga of the migrants from the semi-arid region of the Northeast and the continued worsening of the climate situation in the region, where desertification is advancing, highlight Brazil’s history of failure in responding to the damage caused by climate change. The lack of strategy in the face of more than likely scenarios condemns us to defeat.
As the ocean warms and rises, the game of life becomes more intense. Military budgets are on the rise while resources to tackle everything from hunger to climate change continue to decline. A report by the Política por Inteiro initiative, from the Talanoa Institute, indicates that only R$1,9 billion, out of a total of R$30 billion in the federal budget related to climate policies in Brazil, in 2025, is earmarked for risk and disaster management – that is, 6,3% of the total budget.
It is better not to wait for solutions that fall from the sky, or come from the sea. Because, after all, they will not come from the sea.