A First Look at Polling Performance in 2026

Preelection polls captured the direction of this year’s election, while generally understating the size of Democrats’ advantage.

The most common question pollsters hear around election time is “Who’s going to win?” A close second this year was “Are the polls going to be wrong again?

Votes are still being counted, but two conclusions seem clear: Preelection polls captured the direction of this year’s election while generally understating the size of Democrats’ advantage.

Polls consistently documented the electorate’s dark mood this year, including deep dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, even among some of his 2024 voters. That frustration was particularly focused on his economic policies.

Polls also consistently identified a wide enthusiasm gap, with Democratic supporters more interested, engaged and likely to show up to vote than Republican supporters. Indeed, Democratic supporters were also more likely to take preelection surveys, as a number of our colleagues reported.

In the end, polls found more than enough opportunities for Democratic pickups in the Senate to win a majority in the chamber, and they indicated a likely Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives. But the polling understated the size of the eventual Democratic victory in many of the major statewide races (Georgia and Texas, in particular), as well as in the overall House vote.