The Final Polls Show a Blue Surge. Can We Trust Them?

The New York Times · Nate Cohn · last updated November 1, 2026 – 7:00 PM

Democrats lead in all the key states that will decide Senate control, according to new Times/Siena surveys.

Democrats gained ground right to the end in the final New York Times/Siena University polls of the 2026 midterm campaign. The party is ahead in all seven states likeliest to decide control of the Senate: Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio and, more narrowly, Alaska and Iowa.

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