Farewell to the banana as we know it – climate change threatens 80% of global exports
If you have grown up near a farm, and gone to live near a city, you might have noticed a strange phenomenon: most Western individuals have reduced their greens intake to a few specific fruits and veggies. You might know more than a couple of people that only eat bananas –maybe apples if they are feeling fancy.
It doesn’t matter if you are working as a digital nomad in Colombia, or live up in Alaska: if you go to a supermarket, you will find there are bananas for sale, all year round.
While most individuals in North America might take this simply food item for granted, its availability is only possible thanks to international trade. The logistics of globalisation that make bananas available to any paying customer in all corners of the world escape the average Joe. However, this capitalist miracle might be in jeopardy if global temperatures keep rising.
Where are most bananas produced?
When we picture where bananas come from, it’s easy to think of Latin America, Africa, or the Caribbean. But here’s a surprise: India takes the top spot as the world’s biggest banana producer, producing over 30 million tons a year. However, most of it is for domestic consumption, leaving India as the 12th exporter worldwide.
China comes in second place, producing just over ten million tons of bananas (who would have thought?). That’s according to Christian Aid’s 2022 report, Going Bananas: How Climate Change Threatens the World’s Favorite Fruit, which dives into the challenges banana crops are facing in key producing and exporting regions.
Right behind the big players are Indonesia with 8.35 million tons, Nigeria with 7.26 million tons, and Brazil with 6.26 million tons, rounding out the global top five banana producers for that year.
In terms of export earnings, Ecuador wins first place with $3.42 billion in 2023. That’s three times the figures other global exporters handle: the Philippines with €1.098 billion, Costa Rica with €1.07 billion, and Guatemala with €1.011 billion.
Overall, Latin America and the Caribbean are the main competitors in global banana trade. As Christian Aid points out in its report, around 80% of the world’s exported bananas and plantains come exclusively from this region.
Humankind’s Favorite Fruit
Christian Aid zeroes in on this very issue, explaining that by 2080, climate change could wreak havoc on this region. According to their studies, 60% of the fertile land used for banana and plantain exploration would be rendered agriculturally useless due to extreme heat conditions.
Along the way, the report also points to rising threats from plant diseases. One major concern is black leaf fungus, which hampers the plant’s ability to perform photosynthesis. Another is “Panama disease”, or tropical Fusarium Race 4, a soil-borne fungus. The FAO notes that this disease made its way to Latin America in 2019, after being first identified in Asia back in the 1970s. Today, it has spread to 21 banana-producing countries, making it a global headache for growers.
The average person in Western countries eats around 12 kilos of bananas each year. In contrast, in many African and Asian nations, that same amount can easily be eaten in just a month, since bananas are available all year long. What might be a sweet treat or a breakfast snack for us is actually a daily dietary staple for many others. Uganda is a prime example, where the average person consumes a staggering 191 kilos of bananas per year. For them, it’s not just a fruit—it’s a fundamental part of their meals.
Single-crop Farming: A Fragile Ecosystem
Since the 1950s, the Cavendish banana has become the go-to variety worldwide. It earned its popularity by being highly resistant to fungal diseases, very productive, and capable of lasting a long time on store shelves. However, there’s a catch—it’s grown through cloning.
This means every Cavendish banana shares the exact same genetic makeup, so if a disease ever manages to breach its defenses, it could wipe out huge portions of the industry due to this lack of genetic variety.This is the danger of putting all your eggs in one basket. Interestingly, the Cavendish wasn’t always the king of bananas. Its rise to dominance came after an epidemic in the 1950s wiped out the Gros Michel variety, which had been the main export banana up until that point. So in a way, history could be poised to repeat itself.