FALSE: The scientific consensus that human activity causes climate change is not just 0.3 per cent
FALSE: The scientific consensus that human activity causes climate change is not just 0.3 per cent
More than 99 per cent of peer-reviewed research agrees that humans are the cause of global warming and climate change.
Social media posts claiming that only 0.3 per cent of scientists believe human activities have caused global warming are FALSE.
This Facebook post by an Australian climate sceptic page alleges that only 0.3 per cent of peer-reviewed research papers found that climate change is caused by human activity. The claim is repeated on X (formerly Twitter) here and here.
The posts accuse a 2013 study which found the consensus to be 97 per cent of being fraudulent.
However, the consensus is credible and has since grown beyond 97 per cent.
The original paper by Cook et al., published in 2013, analysed scientific literature from 1991 to 2011. The researchers assigned scores to papers based on their stance on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), which refers to the influence of human activities on global warming.
The analysis found that an overwhelming majority of researchers, approximately 97.1 per cent, who expressed a position on AGW, endorsed the concept.
By contrast, only a small fraction of approximately 120 papers rejected AGW or remained uncertain about it. Notably, the percentage remained consistent when authors self-reported their stance on climate change.
Denialists and sceptics of climate change often highlight that around two-thirds of the papers analysed by Cook et al. did not explicitly take a position in favour or against anthropogenic global warming.
However, the study’s authors provide a plausible explanation for this observation. They suggest that researchers prioritise exploring “disputed or unanswered rather than on matters about which everyone agrees.”
“The fundamental science of AGW is no longer controversial among the publishing science community and the remaining debate in the field has moved to other topics,” the researchers said.
The 2013 paper is also supported by a number of other papers and scientific organisations.
The scientific consensus on climate change has grown since 1995, when it was not universally accepted. A 2011 paper found an earlier consensus to be 75 per cent.
Another paper found the same 97 per cent consensus as the Cook paper. An analysis of six independent studies in 2016 found the consensus to be between 90–100 per cent.
“The finding of 97 percent consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies,” they said.
The consensus was reaffirmed in a 2021 study. The latest findings indicate that the consensus now stands at 99 per cent. Another paper believes it is 100 per cent.
Elsewhere, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its 2023 report, found it is “unequivocal” that humans cause global warming. Almost 200 science academies have taken a similar view.
African Union member states said in the continent’s first climate change strategy that the “scientific consensus on climate change is overwhelming”.
PesaCheck has examined a claim that 0.3 per cent of scientists believe human activity has caused climate change and finds it to be FALSE.