ExxonMobil’s 2050 Energy Transition: Navigating Climate Risks and the Economics of Carbon Capture, Hydrogen, and Biofuels

- ExxonMobil plans $30B investment in low-emission tech by 2030, with 65% targeting third-party emissions reduction amid fossil fuel dominance.

- Carbon capture ($4T market) relies on policy stability, as U.S. subsidy shifts threaten economic viability despite 30M+ metric tons annual capture goals.

- Hydrogen ($1.4T potential) faces high costs ($2.28–7.39/kg vs. $0.67–1.31/kg) and infrastructure gaps, dependent on 45V tax credits and electrolysis breakthroughs.

- Biofuels struggle with 35–66% feedstock costs and policy shifts, as OECD-FAO projects 0.9% annual growth from 2025–2034, slower than prior decades.

- Transition risks include regulatory volatility, technical hurdles, and lack of 1.5°C-aligned targets, testing ExxonMobil’s balance between legacy business and decarbonization urgency.