Extreme Heat Poses Threat to Global Wheat Supply: Study | Weather.com - The Weather Channel

Extreme Heat Poses Threat to Global Wheat Supply: Study | Weather.com

The likelihood of extreme temperatures that could affect crop yields has significantly increased in wheat-producing regions of the US and China, as revealed by a study.

The findings, published in the journals npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, predict that heatwaves, which occurred approximately once every hundred years in 1981, are now likely to happen once every six years in the Midwestern US and once every 16 years in Northeastern China.

Both the US and China are considered global breadbaskets, producing significant amounts of the world's grains. If these crops were to fail simultaneously or alongside other staple crops, it could have serious impacts on the price and availability of food worldwide.

The study demonstrates the range of conditions for which people need to prepare, even if they have not yet occurred.

"The historical record is no longer a good representation of what we can expect for the future," said lead author Erin Coughlan de Perez, Associate Professor at the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University.

"We live in a changed climate, and people are underestimating the current-day possibilities for extreme events," Coughlan de Perez added.

According to the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the average global surface temperature in the last decade was 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than it was between 1850 and 1900.

For the study, Coughlan de Perez and her team collected a large group of seasonal forecasts from the past 40 years and used this ensemble to generate thousands of possible variations in temperature and rainfall.

Winter wheat crops begin their growth in the fall and are harvested the following summer. High temperatures in spring, during the plant's flowering stage, can impact the wheat's development.

When temperatures exceed 27.8°C, the plants start to suffer from heat stress, and at temperatures over 32.8°C, important enzymes in the wheat begin to break down.

Record-breaking heat is often associated with record-breaking drought, explained Coughlan de Perez.

The combination of these two hazards could severely impact the growing season.

The researchers also identified regional and global atmospheric circulation patterns that could lead to severely hot and dry events.

Their results can help inform climate adaptation plans in these regions and ensure that stakeholders are prepared for the unprecedented events that lie ahead.

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The above article has been published from a wire source with minimal modifications to the headline and text.