Explainer: How climate change affects wildfires - CTV News

Wildfires in Canada: What role does climate change play? | CTV News

Skip to main content

Explainer: How climate change affects the frequency and intensity of wildfires

This year's wildfire season in Canada has been wild.

So far, more than 2,600 fires have consumed about 5.9 million hectares of forest across the country, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. This represents more than three times the amount of area that burned in the entirety of last year’s wildfire season — and there are still months of fires expected ahead.

The impacts have been wide-ranging — from tens of thousands of people being forced to flee their homes, to poor air quality in several communities, which affects the health and wellbeing of humans and wildlife.

WHAT IS CAUSING THE FIRES?

The recipe for wildfires calls for three main ingredients, said Mike Flannigan, British Columbia Research Chair in predictive services, emergency management and fire science at Thompson Rivers University.

Those ingredients are vegetation that is flammable — also referred to as “fuel” — such as trees, leaves and shrubs, the source of fire ignition, which tends to be humans or lightning, as well as hot, dry and windy weather conditions that cause fires to spread, he said.

Roughly half of forest fires are caused by lightning and the other half are caused by humans, although Flannigan said the number of human caused fires has been dropping over time, in part due to education around fire prevention and recent fire activity.

However, while there has been a decrease in human-caused fires in recent years, the area burned by forest fires in Canada has doubled since the early 1970s.

“And this is because lightning fires have more than compensated for any decreases from fires (caused by humans) and have led to this doubling of area to burn,” Flannigan explained.

HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT THE FREQUENCY, INTENSITY OF WILDFIRES?

Experts say the reason wildfires are so pronounced this year is because of our changing climate, which is creating the conditions for fires to break out more easily, more frequently and more intensely.

Flannigan said the amount of greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere, including carbon dioxide and methane, has increased due to human activity and it’s warming the planet at an alarming rate — human-induced warming reached approximately 1 C above pre-industrial levels in 2017, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

With warmer temperatures comes longer fire seasons, he said, pointing to Alberta as an example, which started seeing wildfires as early as February this year, months earlier than usual.

As well, with warmer conditions, Flannigan said the ability of the atmosphere to suck moisture out of the flammable vegetation like dry grass and trees increases, and unless there is more precipitation to compensate for this, there will be drier vegetation, which will lead to higher intensity fires.

“The big scary part is we're warming, we're seeing longer fire seasons, we're seeing more conditions for lightning and we're seeing higher intensity fires that are challenging to impossible to extinguish through using firefighters or aerial attack, so it means more escapes, which means more problems,” he added.

Smoke from wildfires burning across both Ontario and Quebec blanket the skyline in Kingston, Ont., Tuesday, June 6, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lars Hagberg

Ryan Ness, director of adaptation research at the Canadian Climate Institute, echoed those remarks.

“In addition to a warmer overall climate, which creates a greater risk for things to dry out and to ignite in the case of wildfires, we're also seeing drier weather and we're seeing more weather that creates lightning as a result of more energy in the atmosphere, which drives more wildfires as well,” he said.

Climate change enables pests like mountain pine beetles as well, which kill “huge swaths” of forests, to survive in parts of western Canada where they previously were not able to because “there’s not a deep enough winter freeze to kill them off,” Ness said.

“So that certain indirect effect of climate change is adding even more fuel to the fire, as it were, and these (effects) are all combining to create a bigger, longer, earlier wildfire season across the country with more fuel to burn,” he added.

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR CANADA?

Canada is currently experiencing its worst wildfire season of the 21st century and matters are expected to get worse — the federal government has said the amount of forests burned by wildfire is projected to double by 2050.

If the country sees this projected increase in frequency and intensity of fires, Flannigan said “the forest will disappear in areas,” but the risk of fires won’t end there as the forest will be replaced by grasslands and shrubs, which will also burn each year.

“So this is the new reality. I don't like the term ‘normal’ because that sounds like a steady state — we're on trajectory,” he said.

“Every year is going to be a bad fire year. 2023 is obviously a bad fire year. 2024 might see cooler weather, but on average, in the future, we're gonna see more bad fire years and we're seeing more bad fire years now than we've seen in the past.”

Ness agreed.

“(Humans and lightning) continue to be the causes, but the difference now is that when those fires start, they get much bigger and out of control than they used to because of the impact of climate change, because of the drought, because of the disease in the forest, because of the drying out that's creating the conditions for unbelievably intense wildfires,” he said.

WHAT CAN BE DONE TO PREVENT OR MINIMIZE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES?

In order to prevent the presence and spread of wildfires, both Ness and Flannigan said a multi-pronged approach is required.

“We have to adapt, we have to deal with this new reality of wildfires and other climate extremes and make sure that we're resilient to it,” Ness said.

Flannigan said this approach could involve introducing fire bans and forest closures well before fires are expected to break out, making the FireSmart program mandatory for homeowners and communities to follow as opposed to voluntary, enhancing early warning and fire danger rating systems, as well as speeding up the allocation of firefighting resources when wildfires break out.

To address the root causes of climate change, he said humans need to stop using “coal, oil and gas as soon as possible” and shift to renewable energy sources in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

“Urgent action is needed now,” Flannigan said.

MORE Climate News

RISKIN REPORTS

Dan Riskin on why hares aren't changing colour fast enough

Dan Riskin on how a glacier at the South Pole can heal

CTVNews.ca Top Stories

Here's how wildfires are starting: experts answer your questions

As fires continue to burn in Canada, CTVNews.ca helps answer questions from how a wildfire starts to how a person can be held responsible for igniting one.

WestJet to shut down Sunwing Airlines, merge it with mainline business

WestJet will wind down Sunwing Airlines and integrate the low-cost carrier into its mainline business within two years as part of a strategy to streamline operations amid fierce competition.

Canada's first out lesbian federal minister on why Pride feels different this year

In 2021, Pascale St-Onge made history becoming the first out lesbian to become a federal cabinet minister. In an exclusive sit-down interview with CTV News, St-Onge speaks about why Pride month feels different this year, and why she thinks sports organizations and athletes should be stepping up.

Conservatives have to moderate to win the next election, O'Toole says in exit interview

Former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole maintains the party will have to moderate if it wants to win a majority government in the next general election, and he 'disagrees' with his caucus colleagues who say otherwise.

Manitoba RCMP say semi-truck had right of way at time of deadly Trans-Canada Highway crash

Manitoba RCMP say they have obtained video footage of the deadly crash between a semi-truck and bus on the Trans-Canada Highway on Thursday that killed 15 people and sent 10 people to hospital, saying the semi-truck had the right of way at the time of the crash.

The woman who founded Father's Day was a renegade, great-granddaughter says

The late Sonora Smart Dodd launched the celebration of dads in 1910 in her hometown of Spokane, Washington. As a result, she is the one responsible for those annual gifts that run the gamut from embarrassingly silly-looking neckties to kids' finger paintings crafted with so much love by those tiny hands that they can bring a tear to the eye of even the most stoic father.

Explainer: How climate change affects the frequency and intensity of wildfires

Experts say the reason wildfires are so pronounced in Canada this year is because of climate change, which is creating the conditions for fires to break out more easily, more frequently and more intensely.

Suspect in multiple murders escapes a jail in Greater Sudbury

A 33-year-old from the Wahnapitae community in Greater Sudbury has escaped from custody at the Sudbury District Jail.

BCE cuts raise questions about future CTV news strategy, highlight tech pressures

The strain facing traditional TV news organizations is well-established but a swath of layoffs that cut several of CTV's best-known news personalities was a surprise to many, including national reporter Joyce Napier.

Canada

- Here's how wildfires are starting: experts answer your questions
As fires continue to burn in Canada, CTVNews.ca helps answer questions from how a wildfire starts to how a person can be held responsible for igniting one.
- Suspect in multiple murders escapes a jail in Greater Sudbury
A 33-year-old from the Wahnapitae community in Greater Sudbury has escaped from custody at the Sudbury District Jail.
- Dominican Republic, Canada disagree over Haitian police aid office
As Haiti's police struggle to contain powerful armed gangs, a disagreement between the Dominican Republic and Canada spilled out into the public on Friday, further complicating an international plan to boost Haiti's outgunned police force.
- Protesters begin 3-day march to Roxham Road after Supreme Court ruling
Quebec activists began their 73-kilometre walk from Montreal to Roxham Road Saturday in protest of the irregular border crossing's closure and the Supreme Court's upholding of the Safe Third Country Agreement. The demonstrators aim to reach Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle, Que. by late Monday afternoon.
- U.S. deploys high-tech Pentagon program to help Canada detect, suppress new wildfires
The U.S. Department of Defense has deployed a new high-tech fire detection system to help Canada battle one of its worst wildfire seasons on record.
- Canada, Ontario Governments reach $10 billion settlement with the 21 Robinson Huron First Nations
The governments of Canada and Ontario have reached a proposed $10 billion settlement with the Robinson Huron Treaty Litigation Fund, representing the 21 Robinson Huron First Nations.

World

- Nearly 100 die as India struggles with a sweltering heat wave in 2 most populous states
At least 96 people died in two of India's most populous states over the last several days, officials said Sunday, with swaths of the country reeling from a sweltering heat wave.
- Netanyahu says Israel will move ahead on contentious judicial overhaul plan after talks crumble
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday his government intends to move ahead on contentious plans to change the country's judicial system after talks aimed at finding a compromise solution appeared to be crumbling.
- Sudan begins a cease-fire ahead of a pledging conference to raise funds for humanitarian assistance
Sudan's warring parties began a cease-fire Sunday morning after two months of fighting pushed the African nation into chaos.
- France, Germany join forces against migration from Tunisia in wake of latest Mediterranean tragedy
Ministers from Germany and France tasked with regulating migration are joining forces to try to curb deaths on dangerous routes across the Mediterranean Sea, traveling Sunday for talks with the president and their counterpart in Tunisia, a major North African stepping stone for migrants trying to reach Europe at risk of their lives.
- Both sides suffer heavy casualties as Ukraine strikes back against Russia, U.K. assessment says
Russia and Ukraine are suffering high numbers of military casualties as Ukraine fights to dislodge the Kremlin's forces from occupied areas in the early stages of its counteroffensive, British officials said Sunday.
- Ugandan border town prepares to bury victims of rebel massacre that left 42 dead, mostly students
A bereaved Ugandan border town on Sunday prepared to bury victims of a brutal attack by suspected extremist rebels on a school that left 42 dead, most of them students, as security forces stepped up patrols along the frontier with volatile eastern Congo.

Politics

- Canada's first out lesbian federal minister on why Pride feels different this year
In 2021, Pascale St-Onge made history becoming the first out lesbian to become a federal cabinet minister. In an exclusive sit-down interview with CTV News, St-Onge speaks about why Pride month feels different this year, and why she thinks sports organizations and athletes should be stepping up.
- Conservatives have to moderate to win the next election, O'Toole says in exit interview
Former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole maintains the party will have to moderate if it wants to win a majority government in the next general election, and he 'disagrees' with his caucus colleagues who say otherwise.
- China not an adversary to Canada, despite 'complicated' relationship: ambassador
Canada's ambassador to China insists the two countries are not adversaries, despite mounting examples of tense relations and allegations of foreign interference stacking up in recent months.

Health

- Pfizer penicillin supply shortage not affecting Canada, for now
Pfizer Inc. is experiencing a supply shortage of penicillin in the U.S. amidst increased demand, but the pharmaceutical company said Canada should be unaffected by the lack of supply, for now.
- 'Promising' new drug to treat Alzheimer's in pipeline of approval in Canada
Canada has started the approval process for a new Alzheimer's drug that is 'quite promising,' according to one expert.
- Time to ditch your gas stove for health reasons? The answer is 'murky,' experts say
A Canadian study suggests an association between household use of gas stoves and a higher risk of asthma in some kids. However, like other recent studies on the issue, the results were inconsistent.

Sci-Tech

- Elon Musk says Twitter video app for smart TVs is 'coming'
A Twitter video app for smart TVs is in the social media company's plans, owner Elon Musk said in a tweet on Saturday, a move that would be in line with the company's new plans to focus on growing video content on the platform.
- Here's how AI is being used in elections: expert
Artificial intelligence is infiltrating election campaigns and could be a cause for concern because it could lead to distrust in democracy, according to one expert.
- How Europe is leading the world in the push to regulate AI
Lawmakers in Europe signed off Wednesday on the world's first set of comprehensive rules for artificial intelligence, clearing a key hurdle as authorities across the globe race to rein in AI.

Entertainment

- Dolce & Gabbana, Emporio Armani and Neil Barrett interpret timelessness during Milan menswear shows
Menswear is looking for post-pandemic footing during Milan Fashion Week, landing somewhere between resort, adventurer and tailoring.
- Stones frontman Mick Jagger, girlfriend have Florida house up for sale
Rolling Stones frontman Mick Jagger and his dancer girlfriend Melanie Hamrick have put their Florida home up for sale.
- How the U.S. writers' strike is impacting Canada
While the writers' strike is causing massive production delays in the U.S., it's also having a direct impact on Hollywood North.

Business

- Microsoft says early June disruptions to Outlook, cloud platform, were cyberattacks
In early June, sporadic but serious service disruptions plagued Microsoft's flagship office suite -- including the Outlook email and OneDrive file-sharing apps -- and cloud computing platform. A shadowy hacktivist group claimed responsibility, saying it flooded the sites with junk traffic in distributed denial-of-service attacks.
- BCE cuts raise questions about future CTV news strategy, highlight tech pressures
The strain facing traditional TV news organizations is well-established but a swath of layoffs that cut several of CTV's best-known news personalities was a surprise to many, including national reporter Joyce Napier.
- TD says it has resolved its direct deposit delay issues
TD Bank Financial Group says a technical issue affecting some customers' abilities to send and receive direct deposits has been resolved.

Lifestyle

- The woman who founded Father's Day was a renegade, great-granddaughter says
The late Sonora Smart Dodd launched the celebration of dads in 1910 in her hometown of Spokane, Washington. As a result, she is the one responsible for those annual gifts that run the gamut from embarrassingly silly-looking neckties to kids' finger paintings crafted with so much love by those tiny hands that they can bring a tear to the eye of even the most stoic father.
- The truth about how often you should wash your hair
A report about a cancer-causing chemical being detected in some dry shampoos may have led you rethink your hair care routine. But experts say there isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer to how often you should wash your hair — or what you can do to maintain it on off days.
- Do you believe in haunted houses? 40 per cent of Canadians say yes, survey finds
A new survey conducted by Research Co. revealed that nearly two in five Canadians believe haunted houses are real.

Sports

- Soccer project tracking social media abuse identifies 300 people from World Cup posts
A project using artificial intelligence to track social media abuse aimed at players at the 2022 World Cup identified more than 300 people whose details are being given to law enforcement, FIFA said Sunday.
- F1 leader Max Verstappen aims for second consecutive Canadian Grand Prix win
Formula One leader Max Verstappen can win the Canadian Grand Prix for a second consecutive year on Sunday afternoon at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve.
- West Virginia basketball coach Bob Huggins resigns hours after drunken driving arrest
West Virginia basketball coach Bob Huggins has resigned a day after his arrest on suspicion of drunken driving in the latest incident in a Hall of Fame career that imploded quickly.

Autos

- U.S. highway safety agency reports power problems in 2022 Hyundai Ioniq 5 SUVs
Multiple U.S. owners of Hyundai's popular Ioniq 5 electric SUV have complained of completely or partially losing propulsive power, many after hearing a loud popping noise, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said Saturday.
- Vehicle theft at a 'critical point' in Canada, with car stolen every six minutes: report
A new report highlights the alarming state of vehicle theft in Canada, particularly in Toronto, which has seen triple the amount compared to 2015.
- First practice cut short at Canadian GP due to local security camera issue
The first practice session at the Canadian Grand Prix barely started before it was cut short due to local security camera issues around the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve.

STAY CONNECTED