Europe’s 90% climate target for 2040 under pressure as delays add up

Influential voices have come out against a planned 90% pollution reduction target by 2040 for the EU with the bloc’s executive yet to make a concrete legal proposal. 

The EU is aiming to slash CO2 emissions by 55% in 2030 before going climate-neutral in 2050. But a political battle rages over the speed of reduction in the two decades between. The European Commission’s idea is to target 90% fewer emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. 

Others are unconvinced.

“The Commission should carefully evaluate the recommended choice of the 90% reduction target option at 2040 against alternatives of 80% and 85%,” Italian Energy Minister Gilberto Frattin said in a note circulated on Tuesday. 

Future technologies could be “much more efficient and less costly,” he said.

A similar view can be heard from Berlin think tank CEP. “Due to the high economic and social risks of the 90% target, the EU would be better off adopting a linear reduction path to 2040,” policy analyst Martin Menner said. 

That means: 78%, drawing a straight line between 2030 and 2050, he argues in a policy note published this week. The view comes amid negotiations on a new German government position and falls on “fertile soil,” according to one source in the centre-right CDU. 

These voices are opposing the EU’s climate advisory body, which has been fighting for a target along the lines of 90% to 95%. 

EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra was ordered to “enshrine the 90% emission-reduction target for 2040” in his mission letter.

Amid these contrasting views, the legal proposal for the target has not yet made the executive’s tentative calendar for March – despite the Commission insisting it would stick to its first-quarter 2024 deadline. 

The Commission has been forced to delay its 2040 climate target proposal to the second quarter, Teresa Ribera, the executive’s second-in-command, said in an interview with Le Monde last week.