EU weighs outsourcing France-sized chunk of emission cuts to poorer nations

Depending on how the EU calculates credit use, the bloc would have to buy offsets amounting to either 140 million or 430 million metric tons of planet-warming pollution by 2040. 

By way of comparison, France emitted around 340 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023, while Belgium released less than 100 million metric tons that year. Together, those emissions would be roughly equivalent to the upper range of that analysis. Due to planned emission reductions, the EU’s total emissions in the year 2040 are projected to amount to less than 500 million metric tons. 

The figures also give an indication of how much cash the EU would have to fork over to foreign countries, as each ton represents one credit.

While there’s no certainty about what credits will cost in 10 years’ time, Switzerland, for example, is currently paying an average of $40 per credit. Commission officials have said they do not want the EU to use cheap, questionable credits, usually traded below €10 — meaning that the cost of either 140 or 430 million credits would run into the billions.

The EU’s scientific advisers — who oppose use of carbon credits to meet the 2040 target — have warned that this funding would not be available for efforts to help the bloc’s own economy decarbonize. In the 2030s, EU countries would need to invest massive amounts of money into reducing the environmental footprint of its heavy industries, for example.

The unclear scale of the credit-buying program also presents a problem for EU governments and the European Parliament, which are under pressure to agree on the 2040 target over the coming months.