The EU needs more accurate modelling tools, data for its climate policies [Gas in Transition]
The EU needs more accurate modelling tools, data for its climate policies [Gas in Transition]
-
Natural Gas News
The EU needs more accurate modelling tools, data for its climate policies [Gas in Transition]
Summary
Europe is accelerating transition away from fossil fuels, but is it based on sound modelling and data? Doing so without a safety net, such as natural gas, could prove to be a folly, with the risk of eventually plunging the EU into another energy crisis. [Gas in Transition, Volume 3, Issue 3] by: Charles Ellinas
CONCITO, Denmark’s Green Think-tank, warned in late February that current European Commission (EC) information and data are not always up to date and do not always reflect recent developments in green technologies and recent-past data and trends. Given that such modelling is central to EC’s decision-making process, influencing energy policies and target-setting, with far-reaching implications, this can only be of concern. Modelling assumptions, information and data are central to this process and must be state-of-the-art if they are not to lead to erroneous conclusions. CONCITO is making the point that the lack of transparency and opaque nature of EC climate modelling data and assumptions make public scrutiny of EC proposals based on such modelling difficult. CONCITO produced examples of imprecise and not up-to-date data used in EC modelling to back-up these arguments. This basis for such criticism was reinforced earlier in March, when EC agriculture commissioner, Janusz Wojciechowski, acknowledged weaknesses in the data collection process used to put together the EU proposed overhaul of the ‘Industrial Emissions Directive’ (IED). This aims to reduce harmful emissions coming from industrial installations, including emissions from livestock farming. In fact, reports show that the proposal was base...
Related Knowledge Center: Climate economics
Climate change is now a driver of the world’s economy. The impact is profound:
- Catastrophic weather events — hurricanes, floods, droughts, high temperatures — are more frequent and more extreme. The cost can be measured in both the initial damage caused and the longer-term impact on the economy.
- Vulnerable communities are increasing climate-related investments, hardening infrastructure and taking other protective measures.
- Investment in carbon capture and storage technologies is increasingly rapidly.
- Governments are making investments and crafting regulations to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
On top of all of this is the cost of uncertainty. As the Fourth National Climate Assessment, released in 2018 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, says, “The assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid.”