News

Estimating vanishing allowable emissions for 1.5 °C

Climate change : nature.com subject feeds · last updated

Estimating vanishing allowable emissions for 1.5 °C | Nature Climate Change

The remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C has been a highly discussed tool to communicate the urgency of efforts needed to meet the Paris Agreement. Now, research reassesses IPCC estimates, suggesting that ongoing near-flat emissions and methodological choices can make big relative differences to the tiny remaining 1.5 °C budget.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals

Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription

$29.99 / 30 days

cancel any time

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 12 print issues and online access

$209.00 per year

only $17.42 per issue

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Allen, M. R. et al. Nature 458, 1163–1166 (2009).
Canadell, J. G. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 673–816 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2023).
Lamboll, R. D. et al. Nat. Clim. Change
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5(2023).
Friedlingstein, P. et al. Earth Sys. Sci. Data 14, 4811–4900 (2022).
Jenkins, S. et al. J. Clim. 35, 7873–7890 (2022).
Riahi, K. et al. in Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Shukla, P. R. et al.) 295–408 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2023).
Monasterolo, I., Nieto, M. & Schets, E. The Good, the Bad and the Hot House World: Conceptual Underpinnings of the NGFS Scenarios and Suggestions for Improvement (SSRN, 2022).
Quaas, J. et al. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 22, 12221–12239 (2022).
Rogelj, J. et al. Nature 571, 335–342 (2019).
Jenkins, S. et al. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 4, 1–10 (2021).
Damon Matthews, H. et al. Commun. Earth Environ. 2, 1–11 (2021).
Cox, P., Williamson, M., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C. & Rogelj, J. Preprint at Research Square
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2384796/v1(2023).
Rogelj, J. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 245–252 (2016).
Forster, P. M. et al. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 15, 2295–2327 (2023).

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The author declares no competing interests.

Rights and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Sanderson, B.M. Estimating vanishing allowable emissions for 1.5 °C. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01846-7
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01846-7

Related Knowledge Center: Climate legislation

State of Play

The federal government and states are in the process of implementing two laws — the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act — an investment of more than a trillion dollars to address climate change.

More informationabout Climate legislation