El Niño threatens acute hunger for 50 million people, UN warns
Nearly 50 million people face severe starvation as an intensifying El Niño event collides with volatile global food systems strained by geopolitical conflict, according to a report from the UN World Food Programme (WFP).
El Niño, the naturally occurring warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is steadily strengthening and is expected to peak between September and December this year. Meteorologists warn it could become one of the most powerful on record, with ecological disruption lasting well into 2027 and damaging multiple harvest cycles.
The climate phenomenon disrupts weather patterns globally, triggering simultaneous droughts, heatwaves, and catastrophic flooding. These weather shocks devastate crops, kill livestock and destroy critical agricultural infrastructure, hitting smallholder farmers and pastoralists who depend on natural rainfall hardest. As agricultural yields drop, food prices surge, leaving essential staples unaffordable for the world’s most vulnerable populations.
The environmental crisis is compounded by economic pressures, particularly soaring energy and fertiliser costs linked to ongoing geopolitical instability, including war in the Middle East and severe shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. With global fertiliser prices up by more than 30 per cent and costs spiking sharply, agricultural production costs have soared, forcing many farmers to reduce planting.
WFP stressed the variety of El Niño’s impact: “Some countries are already experiencing below-average rainfall, flooding and unusually hot temperatures, while others are expected to face deteriorating conditions during upcoming planting seasons and harvests.”
The El Niño is expected to increase rainfall in the southern United States, parts of Peru, Ecuador and East Africa. Conversely, it is set to decrease rainfall and raise drought risks in Australia, Indonesia, parts of Southeast Asia, southern Africa, Central America, and northern Brazil.
