El Niño Climate Impact Outlook - Philippines (August 2026)

The El Niño Climate Impact Outlook: Philippines examines the expected evolution of El Niño during the second half of 2026 and its potential impacts across the country. Forecasts indicate that El Niño is likely to strengthen, increasing the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, higher temperatures and progressively worsening dry conditions in parts of the Philippines.

Key Messages

• El Niño is expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026, increasing the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, higher temperatures and progressively worsening dry conditions across parts of the Philippines.

• Agriculture and water resources are likely to be the principal impact pathways, with potential consequences for food production, rural livelihoods, household welfare, health, energy and the wider economy.

• Exposure is likely to be greatest in rainfed and drought-prone agricultural areas, strategically important foodproducing regions and communities dependent on constrained water systems.

• The Philippines enters the event with stronger forecasting, coordination, anticipatory action and social protection capacities than during previous major El Niño events, creating greater opportunities for early and targeted action.

• Preparedness should remain adaptive throughout the full risk cycle. Agricultural, water and livelihood impacts may persist after El Niño weakens or transitions to ENSO-neutral conditions, while a subsequent shift towards wetter or La Niña conditions could introduce additional hazards before affected households and systems have recovered.