El Niño Climate Impact Outlook - Mozambique (August 2026)

The El Niño Climate Impact Outlook:Mozambique examines the expected evolution of El Niño during the second half of 2026 and its potential impacts across the country.

Key Messages

• El Niño is expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026, increasing the likelihood of drought across central and southern Mozambique, although tropical cyclones and localized flooding remain possible during the rainy season.

• Agriculture and water resources are likely to be the principal impact pathways, with cascading effects on food security, nutrition, rural livelihoods, markets and household welfare.

• Exposure is likely to be greatest in drought-prone agricultural areas of central and southern Mozambique, where reliance on rainfed agriculture and existing food insecurity increase vulnerability.

• Mozambique enters the event with strengthened forecasting, anticipatory action, food security monitoring and disaster coordination, creating greater opportunities for timely early action.

• Preparedness should remain adaptive throughout the event, as drought impacts may persist beyond the return of seasonal rainfall and concurrent hazards could compound recovery needs.