EIA: Stable oil, natural gas production from US Gulf of Mexico expected through 2026

Crude oil and natural gas production from the US Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain stable through next year, with crude oil production forecast to tick up slightly from 2024 levels and natural gas production to dip from last year’s levels.

The forecast, detailed by the US Energy Information Administration based on the May 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, shows oil production in the US Gulf to average 1.80 million b/d in 2025 and 1.81 million b/d in 2026. That compares with 1.77 million b/d in 2024.

EIA forecasts US Gulf natural gas production to average 1.72 bcfd this year and 1.64 bcfd in 2026, compared with 1.79 bcfd last year, EIA noted in a brief analysis June 6.  

Hurricanes affecting the area could disrupt production levels and timelines, EIA said, noting a forecast from Colorado State University of 17 named storms in the 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane season.

That said, should the EIA estimated hold, the US Gulf of Mexico is forecast to contribute about 13% of US crude oil production and 1% of US marketed natural gas production in 2025 and 2026, EIA said.

EIA said without the expected startup of oil and gas production from 13 fields this year and next, Gulf of Mexico production would decline. Of those expected startups, eight will be developed using subsea tiebacks or underwater extensions to existing floating production units (FPU), EIA said. The other five are expected to produce from four new FPUs, with one—Salamanca—targeting production from two fields.

Together, crude oil production from the expected startups will contribute 85,000 b/d in 2025 and 308,000 b/d in 2026, EIA said, with expected associated natural gas production estimated to average 0.09 bcfd in 2025 and 0.27 bcfd in 2026.

2025 Gulf of Mexico production starts

So far this year, Whale, Ballymore, and Dover fields have come online.