EIA: Increased production, reduced consumption will lead to low 2024 natural gas prices - County 17

EIA: Increased production, reduced consumption will lead to low 2024 natural gas prices | County 17

GILLETTE, Wyo. — Low natural gas prices should persist moving into 2024 due to increased production and reduced consumption, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Per the EIA’s latest short-term energy outlook, natural gas prices are projected to average $2.80 per million British thermal units, down more than 60% from what was previously forecast but higher than actual natural gas prices recorded in November.

Last month, natural gas prices averaged $2.71 MMBtu, a decrease of 27 cents from October. In both months, dry natural gas production was on the rise, averaging 105 billion cubic feet per day — the most for any month on record — in a trend EIA expects to persist for the rest of the winter, according to the outlook.

The increased natural gas production led to higher U.S. storage to start the winter season at 3,800 billion cubic feet, 5% more than the five-year average, the EIA says, adding that mild winter weather seen in November drove down natural gas consumption and storage inventories are forecast to remain above the five-year average throughout 2024.

According to the outlook, consumption is expected to be down 2% from the five-year average based on the EIA’s winter weather forecast, which says weather should be close to normal with 44 fewer heating degree days.

Consumption could go up if temperatures are colder than expected, and extreme winter weather events or prolonged cold temperatures could create more significant disruptions, per the EIA.