EIA Estimates USA Crude Oil Output Hit All Time High In December - Rigzone News

EIA Estimates USA Crude Oil Output Hit All Time High In December | Rigzone

EIA Estimates USA Crude Oil Output Hit All Time High In December

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that U.S. crude oil production reached “an all-time high in December of more than 13.3 million barrels per day”.

The EIA noted in the STEO, however, that crude oil production fell to 12.6 million barrels per day in January “because of shut-ins related to cold weather”.

“We forecast production will return to almost 13.3 million barrels per day in February but then decrease slightly through the middle of 2024 and will not exceed the December 2023 record until February 2025,” the EIA said in the STEO.

In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that U.S. crude oil supply averaged 12.93 million barrels per day in 2023, comprising 10.64 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.87 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.43 million barrels per day from Alaska.

The organization outlined that the country’s crude oil output averaged 12.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023, 12.75 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.07 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.29 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Looking ahead, the EIA projected in the STEO that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.10 million barrels per day in 2024, comprising 10.75 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.94 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.41 million barrels per day from Alaska.

U.S. output is expected to average 13.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 13.12 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.06 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.18 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the report outlined.

In 2025, the EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to come in at 13.49 million barrels per day, comprising 11.11 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.98 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.40 million barrels per day from Alaska, according to the report.

The EIA projects in the report that U.S. crude output will average 13.37 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 13.46 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.50 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.64 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of next year.

In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA pegged 2023 U.S. crude oil supply at 12.92 million barrels per day, comprising 10.62 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.87 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.43 million barrels per day from Alaska.

That STEO projected that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024, comprising 10.88 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.92 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.41 million barrels per day from Alaska.

It also forecast that U.S. crude oil supply would average 13.44 million barrels per day in 2025, comprising 11.08 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.97 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.40 million barrels per day from Alaska.

“Our forecast of crude oil production in the United States reaches 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and more than 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025, both of which would be new records,” the EIA said in its January STEO.

“Production growth continues over the next two years driven by increases in well efficiency. However, growth slows because of fewer active drilling rigs,” it added in the STEO.

In a report sent to Rigzone last week, prior to the release of the EIA’s latest STEO, Macquarie strategists highlighted that “November EIA monthlies showed U.S. oil production rising to a record 13.31 million barrels per day, with strong L-48 land growth (+160,000 barrels per day month on month) exceeding Gulf of Mexico declines (-78,000 barrels per day month on month)”.

Total U.S. crude and NGL production likewise achieved a new record at 20.07 million barrels per day, up 1.56 million barrels per day year on year, the strategists noted in the report.

However, the Macquarie strategists stated in the report that, despite strong growth, the monthly crude figure fell short of their expectation, “with both land and offshore supply softer than we had modeled”.

“As we have previously noted, short-term forecasting of U.S. oil production is a messy affair,” the strategists added in the report.

“In any event, we still see potential for December 2023 production of nearly 13.4 million barrels per day, with a 2024 exit rate of ~14 million barrels per day,” they added.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

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Andreas ExarheasEditor | Rigzone

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