Editorial: Trade wars can also disrupt climate for reliable energy

A power supply caught in a power struggle, and the downside that potentially holds for Massachusetts’ expensive choice for a clean energy source.

Power supplier Hydro-Quebec stopped exporting electricity into New England’s wholesale market in recent days, a decision that coincides with the Trump administration’s threatened rollout of tariffs on Canadian imports.

Data provided by grid operator ISO New England show that since last Thursday, virtually no electricity has flowed on the main transmission line between Quebec and New England. It stopped two days after President Trump’s tariffs on many Canadian imports took effect on March 4.

However, an executive with Hydro-Quebec, a utility owned by the Quebec provincial government, attributed the situation to weather issues, not politics or international trade tensions.

Hydro-Quebec’s chief operating officer for US operations told The Boston Globe the company hasn’t sold any power into New England since March 6, and any electricity that did go to New England on the main transmission line or a secondary line to Vermont since that time came from neighboring areas passing through Hydro-Quebec’s grid network.

“Our current stance on the market is price driven,’’ said Serge Abergel. “The warmer weather of the past few days has brought lower prices, which explains our strategy.’’

While Hydro-Quebec pared its exports to New England last year in response to severe drought conditions, it’s highly unusual to go this long without exporting into New England’s wholesale market, since electric prices historically tend to drop as temperatures warm, an annual seasonal dynamic.

So why the prolonged absence of electricity over a habitually occurring phenomenon?

Fortunately, an ISO New England spokesperson said the region currently enjoys a surplus of electricity, so the loss of Hydro-Quebec’s power supply had no adverse impacts.

However, given the recent agreement signed by the major Massachusetts utilities to purchase Quebec hydropower through the New England Clean Energy Connect power line running from the Canadian border to Lewiston, Maine — a much-delayed project whose cost has ballooned to $1.5 billion, a tab the state’s ratepayers will ultimately pick up — this sudden cutoff of electricity raises questions about the reliability of this power source.

The main drivers behind this electricity acquisition — initially Gov. Charlie Baker and now Gov. Maura Healey — obviously didn’t envision deteriorating international relations as a complicating factor.

It seems climate change can range beyond shifting weather patterns.

The cutoff of exported power from Quebec comes as the Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian energy and a threat of a 25% tariff on many other Canadian imports — essentially igniting a trade war with Canada, ostensibly our closest ally and principal trading partner.

Presently, it’s not clear whether hydroelectricity would qualify for Trump’s 10% energy tariff or the broader 25% tariff, or be exempt from either.

But now the administration has paused tariffs on Canadian imports until April 2 if those imports comply with a 2018 trade pact among the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Given this market volatility, ISO New England officials have asked for clarity from US Customs and Border Protection and the US Treasury, but have yet to receive definitive answers.

All this uncertainty raises questions about whether the results of this trade tussle will trickle down to electric bills, including Hydro-Quebec contracts with Massachusetts utilities expected to take effect near the end of the year.

On Monday, Gov. Healey portrayed the new power line and the hydroelectricity it will bring as a way to help save ratepayers money. At the same time, the Globe reported that Quebec Premier François Legault indicated he wouldn’t rule out passing on the added costs of the tariffs to Massachusetts if the trade fight is not resolved before those contracts begin.

If it’s not the political climate, weather conditions could also affect Quebec’s electricity transmission capability.

Dan Dolan, president of the New England Power Generators Association, noted that electricity imports into New England from Hydro-Quebec had already declined precipitously in 2024 due to drought conditions there, coupled with increased domestic demand.

That decline should serve a cautionary tale for policymakers who’ve banked on using more hydroelectricity from Canada to improve the New England grid’s reliability while decreasing its carbon emissions.

“It now puts an even sharper focus on the need to build the facilities necessary to meet electricity demand growth here and preserve the existing facilities that continue to serve as the [grid] reliability backbone,’’ Dolan said.

Dolan’s remarks — implicitly if not explicitly — undoubtedly refer to our supply of natural gas, the backbone of the state’s electricity-generating capability.

As he’s well aware, environmentalists have repeatedly blocked additional pipeline capacity to increase our supply of natural gas, which is in abundant supply, literally on our doorstep.

“To the degree there is any further response from our neighbors to the tariffs that the US appears to be imposing, we need to sharpen our focus on how we build and maintain [power generation] facilities here in the region,’’ added Dolan.

Our domestic natural gas supplies aren’t threatened by geopolitical feuds or variable weather conditions.

Only a refusal to provide adequate pipeline infrastructure constricts its use.