ECMWF weather and climate experts monitor early summer European heatwave
Weather and climate experts at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) working on the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and medium-range (3-15 days) weather predictions for Europe, are closely monitoring the heatwave hitting a wide area of the Continent with values largely above average for the time of the year.
Most of Europe has been forecasted to see temperatures well above average in the coming days according to ECMWF’s medium range weather forecasts. Minimum temperatures during the night have indeed remained extremely high in many parts of southern Europe in the last days of June.
Looking at our C3S reanalysis data, the results show persistent warmer-than-average temperatures in many areas of Europe throughout June, with two heatwaves hitting western Europe, the first one peaking around 20 June and the second one, a week later. For the continent as a whole, the month is likely to be ranked among the top 5 warmest Junes on record.
Daily temperature anomalies during June based on C3S/ECMWF ERA5 dataset, using C3S application Climate Pulse. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index EFI, an index produced by ECMWF to identify areas where the forecasts predict unusually severe weather, has shown maximum values for many areas of Europe in the last days, for daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (see the main chart above). This means that ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) weather model at these locations has consistently forecasted extremely high temperatures for this time of year in those areas.
ECMWF provides free charts for a selection of weather parameters accessible to everyone in the Charts page.
In the last few days, several regions have seen record-breaking temperatures for June with 46ºC in Huelva (Spain), according to the national service Aemet. Météo France put 84 departments in orange alert on Monday with several in red alert for Tuesday, a situation considered “unprecedented” by the authorities. France and the Benelux are seeing the largest deviations from the average for the time of the year with 10ºC to 14ºC above the historical climate, according to ECMWF data, confirmed by Météo France.
High temperature alerts apply also in many areas of Italy, Greece Switzerland, Germany, or Belgium.
For alerts and detailed forecasts for your area, follow the information of your local and national authorities.
Weather and climate experts at ECMWF will continue to monitor the situation and the Copernicus Climate Change Service will publish the monthly Climate Bulletin with further analysis for June temperatures, hydrological variables, and sea ice on 8 July 2025.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is a world leader in numerical weather predictions providing high-quality data for weather forecasts and environmental monitoring.
The success of our activities depends on the funding and partnerships of our 35 Member and Co-operating States who provide the support and direction of our work. Our talented staff together with the international scientific community, and our powerful supercomputing capabilities, are at the core of a 24/7 research and operational centre with a focus on medium- and long-range predictions. We also hold one of the largest meteorological data archives in the world, including ERA5 funded by the European Union Copernicus programme.
Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, looking at our planet and its environment to benefit all European citizens. The programme is coordinated and managed by the European Commission and implemented in partnership with the Member States and European organisations.
ECMWF is a key player in Copernicus, the Earth Observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, by implementing quality-assured information on climate change (Copernicus Climate Change Service), atmospheric composition (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service), and contributing to information on flooding and fire danger (Copernicus Emergency Management Service). Together with ESA and EUMETSAT, ECMWF also delivers the EU’s Destination Earth initiative, which is developing prototype digital twins of the Earth.