Earth on track to lock in key climate threshold in 2029: study - The Hill
Earth on track to lock in key climate threshold in 2029: study | The Hill
Earth on track to lock in key climate threshold in 2029: study
The Earth is on track to lock into a path toward hitting a key global warming threshold in 2029.
A study published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that if the world remains at its current rate of planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions, it’s likely to use up what’s left of its “carbon budget” in about five years.
A carbon budget refers to the amount of carbon dioxide humanity can release into the atmosphere while still evading a key climate change threshold.
As of January, the carbon budget for maintaining at least a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) was equal to about six years of current emissions, according to the study.
Scientists have called for limiting warming to below the 1.5-degree threshold to avoid some of the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
For example, research has shown that as little as 1.7 degrees Celsius of warming could trigger runaway melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which would, in turn, contribute to sea level rise — and the erosion and flooding that comes with it.
The planet has already warmed more than a degree since preindustrial times.
The study’s lead author Robin Lamboll said in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, the findings don’t necessarily mean the world will surpass 1.5 degrees of warming in six years — but it would probably be likely to reach that level of warming at some point.
“Will we be at 1.5C in 6 years, assuming no fall in emissions? Probably not. If emissions don’t fall we still have the temporary aerosol cooling. But we’d likely be committed to reach it eventually,” Lamboll wrote.
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Related Knowledge Center: Climate science
What began as a theory in the 1890s — that industrial emissions of carbon dioxide could increase global temperatures — had progressed to a scientific fact a century later. Scientists across a range of disciplines are studying the impact of the still-growing concentration of carbon dioxide and other so-called “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere as they call for industrial and governmental policies to slow, then halt, the warming of the planet.