The drought in Nova Scotia and its link to climate change
Canada’s summers are changing and scientists see a clear correlation between drought and global warming.
Precise correlation is tricky, but the more drought dovetails with trends of increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation, and with computer model projections, the more confident scientists are in pointing to climate change.
In a 2020 study in the journal Science, human-caused warming was concluded to account for 46% of 21st century megadrought severity in the US/Mexico.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that for every .5-degree Celsius increase, there will be a noticeable increase in the intensity and frequency of droughts that harm agriculture and ecosystems. Extreme agricultural and ecological drought events that used to occur once every 10 years are now 1.7 times more likely than they were from 1850 to 1900, before humans heavily influenced the climate.
While the intricacies of the climate change-drought connection are still being uncovered, scientists agree that droughts will likely become more intense into the 2050s and beyond.
The likelihood of megadroughts – droughts lasting 10 years or more – is also projected to increase from its current 12% to more than 60%, a NASA study warns.
Drought has become more widespread globally. Some of the most widespread and damaging events in recorded history have occurred in the past few years, according to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification Drought Hotspots Around the World 2023-2025 report.
Prolonged drought conditions and associated fire seasons are connected to extreme weather, which in turn is associated with climate change.
Ocean circulation is also a factor (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) but this is also connected to climate change.
The established science confirms that climate change is in effect, and that it is associated with more extreme weather. This means we will face challenges of weather and associated impacts that we haven’t seen in our lived past. Expect the unexpected.
But the warnings have been issued for over a decade now. I wrote (in 2009) in my book Severe and Hazardous Weather in Canada, that we could expect to see more drought associated with a changing climate.
More recent research undertaken on the record-breaking 2023 fire seasons in Canada concluded that fire seasons of that severity were 7x more likely (in the province of Quebec specifically) due to anthropogenic climate change.
The 2016 drought in Nova Scotia highlighted the vulnerability of this province (particularly wells and water supply) which staff in the provincial government cautioned at the time would be ‘exacerbated by climate change.’
What have we done since then to prepare ourselves for this? Closing the woods to hikers is a literal drop in the bucket.
For many Nova Scotians, we are regarding the current drought with concern for possible forest fires and confusion as to whether this is now a ‘new normal.’ Nova Scotia needs to reinvest in government agencies that plan for climate change impact mitigation and adaptation.
The consequences of climate change for our province extend well beyond the current drought, which may be followed by increased impacts from tropical storm events, and sea level rise. We need coastal planning and coordinated efforts across sectors as the impacts are not only personal, environmental, but also economic.
The Nova Scotia Department of Natural Resources and Renewables’ map on potential impact of drought to private wells hasn’t been updated since 2022, for example.
Our provincial leaders would be wise to listen and talk with the environmental NGO sector and engage in community-based planning. There is a lot of expertise amongst our population. It would be unfortunate and unwise to continue to regard Nova Scotians concerned about the state of our province cynically as ‘special interest groups.’
So, while we brace ourselves to expect the unexpected, we can anticipate and prepare. To do anything less would be irresponsible.
Cathy Conrad is a Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies at Saint Mary’s University, Halifax, NS, Canada.