Does COP Still Matter?
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This weekend we’re looking at what’s next for climate politics, starting with COP30 in Brazil. We also check in on next year’s US midterm elections. Plus, brain implants, rail politics, KPop Demon Hunters and more.
Does COP Still Matter?
Last week, the United Nations’ climate summit COP30 kicked off in Belém, Brazil, with a meeting of world leaders – though whether it lived up to that description is debatable. India’s Narendra Modi and China’s Xi Jinping didn’t show up (though their deputies did). Neither did US President Donald Trump, or anyone senior from his administration. And some of the leaders who did attend — including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer — reportedly wavered before going.
This year may be the ultimate viability test for the Conference of the Parties (COP), annual meetings where countries gather to assess the world’s progress on fighting climate change. Delegates in Brazil face powerful headwinds: Trump has called climate change a “hoax” and a “scam,” and many governments are cooling on green commitments as they prioritize taming inflation and bolstering defense. Big business and finance have also gotten quieter on the issue – a development not unrelated to Trump’s reversal of Biden-era clean energy policies and Republicans’ attacks on ESG investing.
Compared to COP21 in 2015 – which culminated in the Paris Agreement – and COP28 in 2023, where nations promised to transition away from fossil fuels, expectations for COP30 are muted. As Bloomberg’s John Ainger has reported, smaller side deals could well come out of Belém. A few countries have already pledged to quadruple their use of sustainable fuels, and they hope to bring others on board. Climate adaptation will get much-needed attention, too.
Meanwhile, the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5C is likely to be breached soon, and nations have dragged their feet on submitting updated climate pledges to the UN. Under current policies and promises, Earth is set to warm by a perilous 2.5C. Chances are slim that countries will reach consensus on the kinds of aggressive measures needed to close the gap. But even modest deals would help restore faith in multilateralism at a time when its future looks precarious.
— Amanda Kolson Hurley, with John Ainger, Bloomberg Green
Predictions
Your brain implant won’t require surgery: “Synchron Inc. raised $200 million to advance its work building brain implants that doctors can insert through blood vessels, avoiding the costly and high-risk surgeries necessary to install devices made by other rival companies.” — Ike Swetlitz, Bloomberg News
The United Arab Emirates could become the first country to map the genetic code of all of its citizens. The program began six years ago and last year overtook the UK as the world’s largest genomic database. — Mark Bergen and Marissa Newman, Bloomberg Businessweek
Europe is going to miss the boat on self-driving vehicles: “Despite boasting some of the world’s prime carmakers, Europe’s self-driving track record is thin, with no established player and pilot projects in a handful of cities.” — Gian Volpicelli, Bloomberg Tech
If Nigel Farage becomes the UK’s next prime minister, it will be because of his support from low-income voters. “The Parliamentary seats containing England’s 50 poorest neighborhoods are turning almost wholesale to Nigel Farage’s insurgent Reform UK.” — Tom Rees and William Standring, Bloomberg News (Read Mishal Husain’s recent Weekend Interview with Farage here.)
China’s railway struggles will be Japan’s gains: “Beijing’s rail diplomacy is running into trouble. That gives rival Japan… an opening it hasn’t enjoyed in years.” — Karishma Vaswani, Bloomberg Opinion
KPop Demon Hunters toys won’t be ready by the holidays. “Most of the toys inspired by the film won’t be ready until the first or second quarter of next year — almost a year after the animated musical first took the world by storm.” — Lucas Shaw, Bloomberg Screentime
And here are a few about US politics in the wake of Tuesday’s off-year elections:
Affordability politics is here to stay. Democrats are turning Trump’s cost-of-living strategy against him. — Nancy Cook, Bloomberg Weekend
A simple message will dominate 2026 elections: “My power bill is too high.” — Mary Ellen Klas, Bloomberg Opinion
Republicans around the US will run against Zohran Mamdani. “On Election Day, I awoke to no fewer than seven press releases from the National Republican Senatorial Committee tying Democratic Senate candidates to [the New York mayor-elect].” — David Drucker, Bloomberg Opinion
The US is entering a period of perpetual redistricting. “The faster tempo — and the creation of more-partisan districts — will change how candidates campaign and legislate.” And there’s no end in sight. — Gregory Korte, Bloomberg News
What Are the Chances…
2026 US Midterms
Tuesday was a good night for Democrats in the US off-year elections. They swept races in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City — and California voters endorsed a redistricting measure designed to counter efforts to redraw electoral maps in Republican-controlled states like Texas. But what do those wins portend for next year’s Congressional races, which have more bearing on Trump’s agenda?
Traders on Polymarket put Democrats’ chances of taking control of the House of Representatives next year at 71%, up double digits from a week ago. Kalshi says the same. Forecasters at Good Judgment Inc., a consultancy, are even more bullish on Democrats, putting their chance of taking the House at 80%.
The Senate is another matter. Democrats’ chances of winning there stand at 35% — up from a week ago but still unlikely, according to Polymarket. (Forecasts as of 1 p.m. ET on Friday.)
Keep an Eye On
It’s Not Easy Being Green
The world has reached an inflection point in the energy transition. Leaps in technology are making it possible to cut emissions faster and more cheaply than ever. At the same time, Trump is reversing efforts to decarbonize the world’s second-biggest polluter.
Drawing on scenarios built using a detailed model of the global economy and energy system, Bloomberg Economics modeled what Trump’s policy pivot means for the world economy, and the potential fallout if other leaders follow his lead.
Assuming everyone else stays the course, the US economy will gain from backing out of the transition. By 2050, US gross domestic product will be 0.8% higher than it would otherwise have been. But in this scenario, decarbonizing becomes more costly for countries that hold the line. Global emissions will likely climb almost 10% — a setback, but not a dramatic increase in the risks from global heating.
If other countries follow the US, they can dodge transition costs, too — but the damage caused by climate change will intensify. Carbon dioxide emissions will be 75% higher, with hotter, poorer countries hit the hardest. With temperatures rising, by 2050 Vietnam could lose just over 3% of GDP, sub-Saharan Africa nearly 2% and India about 1.7%. The US and China could face losses of about 1% and 1.5%, respectively.
This pattern of payoffs would be familiar to any game theorist: It’s a tragedy of the commons, where the impulse for self-interest outweighs the benefits of cooperation. If Trump alone backs out on the transition, the US wins. If other countries do the same, the US loses, and so does almost everyone else.
— Eleonora Mavroeidi and Maeva Cousin, Bloomberg Economics
(Terminal subscribers can read the full report here.)
Week Ahead
Sunday: China releases inflation data.
Monday: COP30 formally begins in Belém, Brazil; Colombia reports CPI; CoreWeave reports earnings.
Tuesday: G-7 foreign ministers meet in Canada; the UK publishes jobs data; Brazil publishes CPI; China holds its annual Singles’ Day shopping festival; US bond markets are closed for Veterans Day.
Wednesday: Argentina, Germany and India publish CPI.
Thursday: Disney, Tencent and JD.com report earnings; the UK reports GDP.
Friday: The euro zone reports GDP; election results are expected in India’s eastern state of Bihar.
Weekend Reads
Have a great Sunday and a productive week.
— Walter Frick and Kira Bindrim, Bloomberg Weekend; Amanda Kolson Hurley, Bloomberg Green
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