The Death Toll From Climate Change Will Be Catastrophic, Scientists Say - Futurism
The Death Toll From Climate Change Will Be Catastrophic, Scientists Say
"Obviously, we have to act. And we have to act fast."
Terrible Toll
We know climate change is wreaking global havoc, from infrastructure destroyed by hurricanes to drought-fueled fires, but what will be the cost to human lives?
Now, a grim new estimate finds that approximately 1 billion people will die this century from various disasters driven by global warming, most of them poor and in the global south — a chilling data point as experts start to go beyond the mechanics behind climate change and move towards grappling with its dreadful toll.
This somber analysis was arrived at by researchers in Canada and Austria who analyzed 180 studies on climate change and mortality, as laid out in a new paper published in the journal Energies. From the analysis, they converged on a "1000-ton rule," which means for every 1,000 tons of fossil fuel burned, a person dies. Calculating with this rule in mind, the researchers concluded that roughly 1 billion people will die if the planet warms up to 2 degrees celsius or higher by 2100.
"If you take the scientific consensus of the 1,000-ton rule seriously, and run the numbers, anthropogenic global warming (AGW) equates to a billion premature dead bodies over the next century," said Western University researcher Joshua Pearce in a statement about the work. "Obviously, we have to act. And we have to act fast."
Averting Disaster
People will die from from a combination of disasters, according to the scientists.
"Storms and floods kill directly, but also indirectly, by causing epidemics," the paper reads. "Droughts kill when drinking water or food runs out. Rising seas kill when people are forced to leave their land and become migrants. In all these cases, poverty and AGW combine to cause human deaths."
So what's the world to do in the face of possible disaster?
The scientists argue in the paper that we should aggressively tackle energy policy to drastically curb carbon emissions.
More on climate change: The Kids Who Sued Montana Over Climate Change Just Won
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Related Knowledge Center: Climate economics
Climate change is now a driver of the world’s economy. The impact is profound:
- Catastrophic weather events — hurricanes, floods, droughts, high temperatures — are more frequent and more extreme. The cost can be measured in both the initial damage caused and the longer-term impact on the economy.
- Vulnerable communities are increasing climate-related investments, hardening infrastructure and taking other protective measures.
- Investment in carbon capture and storage technologies is increasingly rapidly.
- Governments are making investments and crafting regulations to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
On top of all of this is the cost of uncertainty. As the Fourth National Climate Assessment, released in 2018 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, says, “The assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid.”