From crisis to climate-resilient recovery: Rebuilding Syria’s agri-food systems (October, 2025)

Key Messages

• Conflict and climate act as threat multipliers: Armed conflict has destroyed infrastructure and fragmented markets, while climate change has intensified droughts and floods. Together, they have dismantled Syria’s agri-food systems in ways that neither factor alone could explain.

• The collapse is systemic, not sectoral: An estimated that 1.5 million olive trees were lost across Northwest Syria since 2011 (iMMAP, 2023); livestock herders report their herds are on average less than a third of their pre-conflict size; and the deficit in wheat production in 2025 was an estimated 2.73 million metric tons, enough to feed 16.25 million people (FAO, 2025). These are not isolated crises but interconnected failures across value chains, showing the need for integrated recovery strategies.

• Women are sustaining agriculture, but without recognition: With many men displaced or detained, women now assume greater responsibilities over cultivation, herding, and processing. However, they continue to earn 20–50% less than men and remain excluded from land, finance, and decision-making. Unlocking their potential is critical for equitable recovery.

• Communities recognise that climate change is the greatest long-term threat they must confront, not armed conflict: Farmers, livestock herders, and others involved in the agricultural and food production stages described climate change as the most pressing challenge for their present and future, with the greatest negative impact on their livelihoods. This reflects local awareness and readiness to adapt if the necessary support is provided. On the other hand, actors at more advanced stages of the value chain, such as olive press owners, mill operators, and dairy and cheese producers, acknowledged the threat posed by climate change but identified armed conflict as the most urgent challenge affecting their present and future. This highlights differing perspectives based on the actors’ positions along the value chain

• Resilience exists but requires investment to be scaled up: From experiments with drought-resistant crops to solar-powered irrigation practices, communities have already begun to innovate. With flexible and long-term funding, these local initiatives could become the cornerstone of a climate-resilient agri-food sector recovery.