Cracking the ‘long tail’ problem: new research targets hidden solar panel issue

Around a fifth of solar panels examined in a new study fail much faster than expected and some may last for only half their anticipated lifetime.

New research has uncovered a critical challenge in solar energy with the discovery that a considerable amount of solar panels degrade much more rapidly than expected.

Experts from UNSW have identified the reason behind the so-called ‘long tail’ in the probability distribution of the performance data after analysing information obtained from nearly 11,000 different photovoltaic samples globally.

The long tail appears on graphs showing the degradation rate per year of the panels, indicating that up to 20% of all samples perform 1.5 times worse than the average.  

In other words, a significant number of panels do not degrade at a constant rate over a long period of time as might be anticipated, but instead lose energy or fail unexpectedly much sooner.  

The discovery is important in terms of raising the standard of solar panels and making solar farms more cost-effective and reliable.