COP30: What to expect on conflict, climate and militarism

The Amazonian COP

Brazil has been in the spotlight ever since COP27, when then President-elect Lula launched a passionate bid to host COP30. From controversial infrastructure plans to newly announced oil and gas exploration licences in the Amazon, this COP, like those before it, is not without its contradictions. Brazil is already the eighth largest oil and gas producer, and has faced criticism for fuelling what Lula elsewhere described as the “premeditated genocide” in Gaza through oil exports to Israel. Nevertheless, Lula’s presidency has seen progress in Brazil’s approach to climate and environmental policy, with deforestation at an 11 year low. This has helped Brazil to reduce its emissions, although it is expected to miss its 2025 target of 48.4% compared to 2005. 

Branded the Amazonian COP, the Brazilian presidency has focused its efforts on establishing a ‘Tropical Forest Forever Facility’, an initiative aiming to change the economic calculus of deforestation. Brazil has frequently positioned itself as a leader on environmental and climate policy in the past but its intersection with peace and security has been sensitive at times, with tensions around securitisation linked to fears of external interference in its management of natural resources. But as COP30 has approached, Lula has been vocal in calling out increasing militarisation. At last week’s COP30 Leaders Summit he argued that: “…spending twice as much on weapons as we do on climate action is paving the way for climate apocalypse”, adding that: “there will be no energy security in a world at war.” Articulating the link between increased military spending and reduced climate and development finance fits well with Brazil’s oft pursued role as a leader of the Global South but it remains to be seen how this will be reflected in the presidency’s COP30 activities.