Cop28 live: UAE climate chief's comments 'incredibly concerning', - The Guardian

Cop28: UAE climate chief’s comments ‘incredibly concerning’ - as it happened | Cop28 | The Guardian

‘When you put Count Dracula in charge at the Blood Bank’ … Reaction continues to flood in about the UAE climate chief’s comments, and none of it could be called flattering.

This my letter to the #COP28 President, written on behalf of the climate system itself with @MichaelEMann. There IS science behind the need for a fossil fuel phase out, dear Sultan Al Jaber. And you cannot negotiate with science! pic.twitter.com/KvcGDheiqJ

— Prof. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (@Mastodon.World) (@JPvanYpersele) December 3, 2023

Beyond astonishing.

Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels

When is a ‘protected area’ not a protected area? When there is oil involved.

A new study maps fossil fuel threats to biodiversity hotspots that are nominally classified as protected areas. Released today at Cop28, it shows:
Globally, at least 918 protected areas have ongoing or planned fossil fuel extraction projects within their boundaries, with a total of 2,337 active or proposed oil, gas, and coal extraction ventures within legally protected areas. At least 50.8 Gt of potential CO2 emissions from oil, gas, and coal reserves are on track to be extracted from projects within protected areas over their lifetimes, according to industry projections. This is more than three times the annual emissions from the US and China combined. In the three largest pantropical forest basins, 300,000km2 or 14% of the area of PAs, overlap with oil and gas blocks. Excess natural gas of state-owned Petroecuador is flared as Ecuador is preparing to shut down oil production in the Yasuni Amazon reserve, in Via Auca, Orellana province, Ecuador. Photograph: Karen Toro/Reuters

The full report, which was produced by Earth Insight, the Leave it in the Ground Initiative and the IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas, can be found here.

‘When you put Count Dracula in charge at the Blood Bank’ … Reaction continues to flood in about the UAE climate chief’s comments, and none of it could be called flattering.

This my letter to the #COP28 President, written on behalf of the climate system itself with @MichaelEMann. There IS science behind the need for a fossil fuel phase out, dear Sultan Al Jaber. And you cannot negotiate with science! pic.twitter.com/KvcGDheiqJ

— Prof. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (@Mastodon.World) (@JPvanYpersele) December 3, 2023

Beyond astonishing.

Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels

There is apparently no formally agreed definition of long-term global heating, which means there are different interpretations of when the world will break the 1.5C target of the Paris climate agreement.

In the short-term that temperature rise could be reached very soon. Some suggest it could happen in the next few years, possibly even this year. But climate trends are determined over decades, not years so how to calculate when Paris is breached?

One proposal, put forward by Richard Betts of the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre is to combine the last ten years of global temperature observations with an estimate of the projection or forecast for the next ten years. He says: “If adopted this could mean a universally agreed measure of global warming that could trigger immediate action to avoid further rises.”

Approaching 1.5°C: how will we know we’ve reached this crucial warming mark?

The Paris Agreement does not define "temperature rise", so recognition of 1.5°C being reached may be delayed

A reminder of what is at stake in this excellent summary of the State of the Global Climate 2023 report by the World Meteorological Organisation. They observe record greenhouse gases, record heat and devastating natural disasters, including:
Storm Daniel, which flooded many parts of the Mediterranean and then destroyed dams in Dema, Libya, killing at least 4,300 people. Wildfires in Canada that scorched a record area that was six times bigger than the 10-year average.

The deadliest US wildfire in more than 100 years, which killed 99 in Hawaii.

Detailed thread in the following X post.

So, the WMO’s provisional State of the Global Climate 2023 report is out. Long-term the story hasn’t changed: world warming, sea rising, ice melting, as well as everything that goes with that. There are details of course, so thread… 1/n pic.twitter.com/AsYAsuE88U
Fossil fuel phaseout is ‘required’ to reach Paris targets – report

Leading climate scientists at Cop28 have emphasised that a fossil fuel phaseout is required to keep global heating below the Paris agreement’s temperature targets.

Prof Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “I cannot see scientifically there being any other communication than that we need to phase out fossil fuels.”

The scientists’ report was launched in Dubai shortly after the Guardian revealed that the Cop28 president had said shortly before the summit that there was “no science” saying that the phase-out of fossil fuels was needed to keep below 1.5C. Sultan Al Jaber is also CEO of the UAE’s state oil company.

The issue of whether the 198 nations at Cop28 should decide on a phase-out or phase-down of fossil fuels is one of the most fiercely fought issues at the summit and may be the main determinant of its success.

The new report states: “A rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out is required to stay within the Paris agreement target range.” It said Cop28 should “take unambiguous steps towards clear commitments for a managed phase-out of all fossil fuels”.

Rockström said: “Science is clear. Cop28 must be the global meeting when the world gets serious about phasing out fossil-fuels. So far, we have failed, taking us on a dangerous path towards losing sight of the Paris agreement target: the 1.5C biophysical limit.”

“And if some qualifying term, like ‘unabated’ is used, it needs to be clearly well defined, with science based thresholds. High-income countries must lead this transition [to renewable energy] and provide support for countries with lower capacities.”

The report was supported by Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UNFCCC, the treaty under which the Cop meetings are held. He said in a press release: “The ‘Ten new insights in climate science’ report provides an essential tool for decision-makers at a critical time in the climate calendar each year. Scientific findings from reports like these should inform the ambitious and evidence-based action plans needed in this critical decade of accelerated climate action.”

The report was produced by leading climate scientists for Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme.

Scientists are weighing in now, as well as campaigners and human rights experts:

Dr Marina Romanello, executive director of Lancet Countdown said: “In the light of [Al Jaber’s comments], health day seems like complete hypocrisy. It’s an enormous betrayal to invite the health community at the table but ignore all the warnings and science that point to how disastrous the impacts of fossil fuels are on our health and future. An outcome that doesn’t address the phase out of fossil fuels, would be a failed outcome.”

Dr Kate Dooley, at the University of Melbourne, said: “You can’t expect forests and nature to remove carbon and solve the climate crisis on one hand, and then suggest fossil fuels don’t need to be phased out. The very future existence of forests depends upon us ending continued emissions. Without that step, we’ll have no forests to turn to.”

And this from the UN special rapporteur on human rights and the environment, a UBC professor and environmental optimist:

Wrong! In 2012, the International Energy Agency wrote that 2/3 of proven fossil fuel reserves must not be burned A study published in Nature in 2015 confirmed (v. 517) Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demand for phase-out of fossil fuels https://t.co/oji8Uz6zyv

Scientist: Cop28 President needs to read climate science reports

Still more condemnation of Al Jaber’s comments. This time by the scientist who has helped lead several of the United Nations global studies into the impacts of global heating and how to prevent them from getting steadily more awful beyond 1.5°C.Joeri Rogelj, Professor of Climate Science and Policy at Imperial College London, said:

“The COP President believes there is no science showing that fossil fuels must be phased-out to meet 1.5°C. I strongly recommend him asking around for the latest IPCC report. That report, approved unanimously by 195 countries including the UAE, shows a variety of ways to limit warming to 1.5°C - all of which indicate a de facto phase out of fossil fuels in the first half of the century.

“Will that take the world back to the caves? Absolutely not, except to cool off during the next excruciating heatwave maybe. Research published just a week ago shows that ending extreme poverty has a negligible impact on global emissions. Less than 5% of today’s emissions until 2050 and potentially as little as half a percent.”

My colleague Helena Horton sends in more furious reaction about Sultan Al Jaber’s claim that that there is no scientific evidence that a phase-out of fossil fuels is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5C.

Teresa Anderson, ActionAid International’s Global Climate Justice Lead said,
“Sultan Jaber’s comments are completely divorced from the reality of hundreds of millions of people on the frontline of climate catastrophe. Communities whose lives are already being destroyed by floods, droughts, and cyclones have a different view on whether a fossil-fuelled future represents progress or poverty. With climate disasters worsening with each year, his comments fly in the face of all science and offer up another lifeline for climate-wrecking fossil fuel industries. We urge him to show leadership and commit to a phase-out agenda - not one that will wreak further harm and plunge the planet further on the brink of climate meltdown.”

200,000 cases of diarrheal diseases during drought in Amazonas

With health as today’s theme for the UN climate summit, a reminder from Brazil of the devastating impacts of the water shortages that have plagued the Amazon rainforest and its residents. Globo reports there have been more than 200,000 cases of diarrheal disease during the drought because low river levels lead to lower quality water. (Story in Portuguese)
Dead fish in a dried-up river bed in Amazonas. Photograph: Raphael Alves/EPA Gina Marcela Cortes Valderrama reacts as names of the victims of the Israel-Hamas war are read out during a protest at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Photograph: Peter Dejong/AP

There is no climate justice without human rights. That was the clear message from climate organizers who gathered this afternoon to demand an immediate ceasefire in Palestine. The protest took place under strict UNFCCC rules, amid warnings that any mention of specific countries or flags could lead to the Cop28 organizers revoking credentials and people being thrown out. “I don’t know what else to do, nothing can justify a genocide. There can be no climate justice without social justice,” said Monica Flores Hernandez, 33, from Climate Trace, a nonprofit in Puerto Rico.

The hour-long protest - by the far the largest of Cop28 so far - ended like it began, with organizers taking turns to read the names of just a few of the Palestinians killed by Israeli bombs since 7 October. I’ve covered many protests as a journalist over the past 16 years or so, but had never seen so many people - organizers, journalists, participants - weep. “These names were real people with aspirations. Please don’t forget them,” said Rania Harrara, a Unicef youth advocate and MENA feminist taskforce.

The new texts considers proposals for how forest conservation should be included in the rules for the carbon market or whether it should be excluded.

Once operational, large polluters such as the UK and Saudi Arabia will be able to purchase carbon credits from states with major carbon sinks such as Brazil and Indonesia to meet their own national targets.

Businesses are already buying up carbon rights in anticipation of a potential new industry, with one UAE firm signing agreements for areas of forest larger than the UK.

But carbon markets are among the most controversial and complicated parts of international climate politics. Some observers fear that weak rules on what counts as a carbon credit could mean countries end up trading hot air to meet their NDCs all while the planet continues to warm. Others worry that if the rules are too restrictive, climate finance will not flow.

A key question is what countries are allowed to trade. If a country decides not to extract oil, should it get carbon credits? If a state restores large areas of forest or electrifies another country’s transport network, how should that be counted? The list of potential problems is long and negotiators need to come up with an answer.

If you would like to read through some of the negotiating texts on carbon markets, Carbon Brief’s Dr Simon Evans has the latest and a useful tracker to follow their progress.

Campaigners outraged by UAE climate chief’s comments

My colleague Damian Carrington, who broke the story about Sultan Al Jaber’s dismissal of science behind the need to phase out fossil fuels, has sent in more reaction from climate campaigners.

Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa:
“The comments from Cop28 President show how entrenched he is in fossil fuel fantasy and is clearly determined that this Cop doesn’t do anything to harm the interests of the oil and gas industry. “These remarks are a wake up call to the world and negotiators at Cop28 that they are not going to get any help from the Cop Presidency in delivering a strong outcome on a fossil fuel phase out and will need to work hard to ensure a few petrostate leaders don’t imperil the planet in their efforts to protect their oil profits. “For the people in Africa, already dying because of climate change, a fossil fuel phase out date in the future is already too late. We need to ensure we have a date locked in here at COP28 so that at least the next generation has a chance to survive.”

X (formerly Twitter) is also buzzing with indignation.

Utterly ridiculous 🤦🏽 ♀️

We need to phase out fossil fuels - and we can do so in a just, fast and financed way that works for people from the UK to the global south, our planet and the global economy https://t.co/GGVvMnLrqM

Contrary to what President Al Jaber claims, "fossil fuels do not = development, energy access, jobs, profit for our economy. Fossil fuels threaten our livelihoods, health, biodiversity. An equitable phaseout of fossil fuels provides a much brighter path for Africa"- Thuli Makama https://t.co/GAA1AJ8rUH

On the first day ever dedicated to health at a climate summit, the World Health Organization is on a mission to make policymakers understand that “the climate crisis is a health crisis”.

Dr Maria Neira, the WHO’s top environmental health official, told me back in October that negotiators at Cop need to understand that our lives are at stake – and that doctors weren’t going to sugarcoat the message for them.

“No one will leave Cop this year saying: ‘Oh, I didn’t know health was affected,’” said Neira. “We will make sure that this will not be the case. Everyone needs to know this is not just about climate, polar bears and glaciers. This is about my lungs and your lungs.”

Burning fossil fuels kills millions of people each year just from the air pollution it causes. Add to that the effects of climate change, which range from hotter heatwaves and stronger coastal floods to crop failures and mental distress, and it’s enough for public health experts to ring alarm bells.

“We should create for every single mayor in the world, and every single prime minister, a health checklist where we make them accountable for all the decisions the ministers on their cabinet take in terms of health,” said Neira. “And we can do the same for negotiators at Cop.”

Climate scientist says Cop28 president should resign

Prof Michael Mann, a climate scientist, has called for the resignation of the Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, over the latter’s claim that there is “no science” behind claims that fossil fuels need to be phased out to restrict global heating to 1.5C.

A Lord of the Rings perspective on the climate crisis from my colleague Larry Elliott.

Despite the scientific evidence and all the warning signs from nature, greenhouse gas emissions have kept on rising and made it increasingly hard to prevent global temperatures from passing the point of no return. Seen from this perspective, the human race will be destroyed by greed and stupidity. The orcs win.

There is, though, a more upbeat way of looking at things. The past 30 years have increasingly seen the environment hard-wired into policymaking. Net zero targets, the commitments to phase out of fossil fuels, investment in renewables, electric cars, official measures of economic wellbeing that look beyond growth: all of these are signs of progress. The only intellectual developments of any real note in economics since the end of the cold war have been green ones: de-growth and the circular economy, for example.”

Read Larry’s full take on Tolkien, capitalism and industrialisation here.
Protesters at Cop28 calling for a ceasefire in Gaza Photograph: Nina Lakhani/The Guardian

Hundreds of people mostly wearing white from a broad spectrum of climate justice organisation have gathered to call for a ceasefire at a Palestinian solidarity event. UNFCCC rules prohibit flags or any mention of countries. The event has started by two young organisers reading the names of some of the 15,000-plus Palestinians killed by Israel since 7 October, weeping as they call out names of babies and children as well as elderly people. It’s a quiet but powerful event with poetry and finger-clicking to express how people are feeling. “We come here as a movement to condemn the occupation, to condemn the apartheid, to condemn the silence of the world,” said the Colombian organiser Gina Cortés.

Asad Rehman, the founder and director of the UK-based Global Campaign for Climate Justice said: “Climate justice people from all over the world have mobilized because in the faces of Palestinians, black brown and indigenous people see their past present and future. We see the scars of colonization and sacrificed people and lands. The west says there is no money for climate finance but they have billions for bombs and bullets.”