Column | How snowy could it be where you live this winter? Look up your area.

The magic of a winter wonderland runs deep in American culture, from the prospect of spending the day by the fireplace as snow piles up outside to the promise of canceled classes for schoolkids.

But data shows there’s less of that magic in the last half decade than there used to be — particularly in the central and eastern United States. A new analysis by The Washington Post found that swaths of the Plains, Midwest and East Coast have received much less snow than average over the past five winters — a trend that may continue this season, unless the polar vortex makes an early winter visit. The biggest snow shortages have occurred near the East Coast, with the Carolinas, D.C., Rhode Island, Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and New Jersey all seeing snow decrease by at least 35 percent since 2020.

Around 70 percent of states in the contiguous U.S. have seen declining snowfall in recent winters, although parts of the West and some of the South have experienced more snow. Winter snowfall is increasing across Alaska as a warmer atmosphere can enable more moisture-laden storms. Hawaii’s mountains lack long-term snowfall data, though snow is projected to decrease.

For the Northeast, the harsh winters of the late 1970s, the unrelenting winter of 1995-96 and even the “snowmageddon” winter of 2009-10 are but distant memories. In the Southeast, it’s hard to imagine another Christmas snowstorm like the one that happened in 1989, even as a freak snowstorm along the beaches of the Gulf Coast last winter showed us that it’s still possible for huge amounts of snow to fall in unusual places in a warming climate.

But overall, the ingredients needed to generate blockbuster snowstorms or persistently snowy winters — freezing air and moisture — are linking up less frequently.

“There’s no question that snow pack across the United States — and, indeed, the world — is changing,” said Twila Moon, a deputy lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

A trend toward warmer winter temperatures generally doesn’t bode well for lots of snow, instead allowing for more mixed precipitation or rain. However, there’s significant year-to-year variability in snow amounts, and higher levels of atmospheric moisture may allow for bigger storms from time to time.

Regional snowfall trends

A total of 35 contiguous states have experienced below-average snowfall over the last five years, with some of the steepest snow deficits occurring near the East Coast.

See how patterns have changed and varied where you live.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

From the nation’s capital to New England, snowfall has been as much as 40 percent below-average over the last five winters as a whole — especially near the coast.

The places that have seen the largest declines include D.C., Virginia, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and Massachusetts.

In Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore, six out of the last seven winters have featured less snow than normal.

Rising temperatures, linked to a warming Atlantic Ocean, means that precipitation is more frequently falling as a mix or as rain instead of snow.

There’s also been fewer coastal storms during recent winters, connected to La Niña, a climate pattern which typically weakens the storm-sparking southern jet stream.

Southeast and Deep South

Last winter’s historic storm brought snow to places from coastal Louisiana to northern Florida that don’t even average an inch of snow per winter, making it a huge anomaly.

But for places that typically see at least an inch of snow per winter — including areas from near Atlanta to Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, the last several years have brought serious snowfall shortages, with the Carolinas down around 50 percent.

In six of out the last seven winters, Fulton County, home to Atlanta, has received an inch of snow or less — last winter being the exception. The last time Wake County, North Carolina — where Raleigh is — had at least six inches of snow was during the winter of 2018-19. Closer to the Appalachians, near Asheville, North Carolina, there’s only been one winter with above-average snowfall since 2016.

Mid-South, Ohio Valley and Appalachians

In this swath of states, most areas have seen below-average snowfall during the last several winters with one exception — a corridor from Arkansas to Tennessee.

In Davidson County, Tennessee, where Nashville is, four out the last five winters have featured more snow than normal, possibly connected to La Niña. A similar pattern extends into northern Alabama and Mississippi.

In Louisville, last winter was snowier than normal, but five out of the six winters before that had below-average snow.

In Kentucky, West Virginia and Ohio, snowfall totals over the past five seasons have been about 25 percent lower than normal, with peak deficits as high as 40 percent.

Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes

From the snow belts of the Great Lakes to metropolitan Chicago and the cornfields of the northern Plains, snowfall has generally been below-average during recent winters.

The city of Rochester, New York, experienced its last winter with more snow than normal in 2018. Around Detroit, above-average snowfall last occurred in 2017. In Chicago and Indianapolis, the last four winters have all had below-average snow.

The Minneapolis area had a huge snow season in 2022-23 — but every other season dating back to 2019 was below-average.

From Iowa to the Dakotas and Nebraska, there’s been a 10 to 25 percent reduction in snowfall over the past five years.

Rockies and the West

The West has been best when it comes to snow in recent winters, with many states experiencing above-average snowfall as stronger moisture plumes stretch across the Pacific.

Snowfall has been greater than normal over the last five winters in Arizona and California. Near Flagstaff, Arizona, four out of the last seven winters have featured more snow than average. In California’s Sierra Nevada, where snow melt plays a critical role in water availability, feeding reservoirs and rivers, snowfall has been above-average in three out of the last four winters, with reservoir levels sitting above 100 percent.

Popular ski destinations in Colorado have also received ample snow in recent seasons: Near Aspen, snow has been above-average in three out of the last four winters.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Moon said that the density of the snow — whether it is closer to slush or fine champagne powder — is an important factor in ski conditions.

“We could have a large snowpack, but if that snowpack is wet and dense it won’t be as fun. Or we might have a large snowpack, but a very short snow season, meaning we got more snow over a short period of time but still not as many days to enjoy it,” added Moon.

Alaska and Hawaii

In Alaska, trends in annual snowfall are fairly flat, but core winter snowfall from December to February is up markedly, said Brian Brettschneider, an Alaska-based climate scientist.

But that comes at the expense of decreasing fall and spring snow. And this fall, Alaska has been off to a less snowy start — down about 20 percent.

“That means we’re already having to play catch up,” Brettschneider added.

More precipitation is falling as rain than snow in Alaska as it warms, causing cascading problems. With relatively little sunlight reaching the region and subfreezing temperatures, rain turns to ice on contact with the ground, leaving roads dangerously icy for months and making it harder for caribou to graze.

In Hawaii, the tallest mountain peaks of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa average feet of snow each winter. Long-term snow records aren’t available for these places, but the number of winter weather advisories issued for them has stayed fairly steady since 2006.

Will there be more snow this winter?

No, the colors of the woolly bear caterpillar you saw in your backyard this fall can’t tell you if it’s going to be a snowy winter.

But, sophisticated seasonal climate models, which suggest less snow than normal, provide clues as to what may unfold.

Every month, predictions of seasonal snowfall are released from forecasting centers in Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Canada. A blend of these model forecasts tends to be more accurate than any single one.

These predictions were reasonably accurate last winter, when about two-thirds of the United States experienced below-average snowfall.

However, even the most powerful supercomputers can’t predict a rare Southern snowstorm months in advance. Seasonal forecasts gain their edge when they draw on climate patterns that help shape the season’s weather.

This winter, two patterns in the Pacific Ocean — La Niña near the equator and a marine heat wave in the north — give more confidence to the outlook.

During winter, fast-flowing ribbons of air — called jet streams — race tens of thousands feet above the ground, guiding storms around the planet.

Because La Niña has cooled the Pacific Ocean, the southern jet stream tends to be weaker, bringing drier, warmer and less snowy conditions to the southern United States.

This jet stream also can drive East Coast snow storms called nor’easters. If it’s blowing with less force than normal, there may be fewer storms.

But the northern jet stream tends to be stronger, flowing across Alaska, into Canada and across the northern tier of states. This year, that jet stream may carry more moisture because an unprecedented marine heat wave spanning the North Pacific.

This waterlogged air could cause stormy conditions from the Pacific Northwest, where winter got off to a fast start, to the northern Plains — potentially extending into the Great Lakes and New England. It also contributed to a historic polar plunge in early November across central and eastern states.

Areas caught in the middle of the two jet streams, such as the Midwest, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, could be in a battleground of warmer and colder air, creating more uncertainty as to how much snow may fall this winter.

But forecasts — whether for tomorrow or two months from now — are never quite that simple and change as the influence of climate drivers ebb and flow. Small changes could send the outlook into a tailspin. But because our understanding of how the atmosphere works is so advanced, we know the types of tricks that might be played.

One such wild card factor involves the polar vortex, a swirling ring of freezing, stormy air that sits high above the North Pole during winter.

Occasionally, a change in winds or pressure patterns can disturb the vortex, causing it to warm substantially, with impacts cascading through the atmosphere — sometimes resulting in frigid air spilling southward from the Arctic toward where more people live.

And there are already some signs that such an event may unfold in the weeks ahead, which could trigger a cold, and possibly snowy, start to winter in parts of the United States.

Snow enthusiasts can only hope it does.