Coffee Prices To Rise Due To Climate Change: GlobalData

Climate-related disruptions are expected to push coffee prices higher, according to GlobalData.

Rising temperatures and extreme weather changes are affecting coffee cultivation and reducing yields, increasing uncertainty across the supply chain.

GlobalData added that for hot coffee manufacturers, ready-to-drink brands, and café chains, climate disruption is a procurement and operations challenge, not just a farming issue.

Traditional growing regions are becoming less suitable, with 75% of global coffee production exposed to an additional 57 days of extreme heat annually, according to estimates from Climate Central.

In El Salvador, growers are facing up to 99 additional heat days per year.

Arabica Affected

Arabica, which accounts for more than half of global coffee production, is particularly vulnerable due to its narrow growing conditions between 15°C and 24°C and reliance on higher altitudes.

Around 20% of Arabica-growing regions could become unsuitable by 2050, according to Rabobank.

GlobalData warned that increasing concentration of production in fewer regions could heighten the risk of supply shocks and price volatility.

Katamaneni Greeshma Kasturi, consumer analyst at GlobalData, said, “If suitable growing zones shrink and production concentrates in fewer regions, supply shocks become more likely—and the ripple effects on pricing and availability can be amplified. Quality is also at risk.”

Kasturi added, “In practical terms, climate change is affecting not just how much coffee is produced, but also how predictable and repeatable its flavour and performance are.”

Rising Prices And Reduced Options

GlobalData noted that consumers are likely to face higher prices and fewer options, particularly in the specialty coffee segment.

In 2024, the Food and Agriculture Organization recorded a nearly 40% increase in prices.

Producers may increasingly turn to robusta, which is more resilient to extreme weather, although this could impact overall flavour profiles.

As climate change disruptions are not temporary, GlobalData suggests that manufacturers invest and adapt quickly to ensure a stable coffee supply.

Kasturi, commented, “Adaptation is possible, but it requires investment. Farmers are experimenting with shade-grown systems and agroforestry to cool microclimates, conserve moisture, and buffer temperature extremes.

“Meanwhile, research institutions and industry groups are also developing hybrids and varieties that can better tolerate heat and drought, resist pests, and still deliver strong cup quality. Yet these solutions take time to scale, and smallholder farmers—who produce much of the world’s coffee—often lack access to finance, technology, and training, making targeted support essential.”