Coffee Prices Drop as Supply Recovers After Climate Setbacks

The impact of climate on production

Arabica coffee, which once hit US$4.30 per pound in February 2025, is now priced at US$2.80.

Meanwhile, Robusta fell from US$2.75 in February 2025 to US$1.73 per pound.

Smallholder farmers relying on price and harvest stability find themselves hardest hit by this change, with retailers also feeling the effects.

Brazil’s situation is particularly challenging, with 110,000 wildfires burning 114,000km² between January and August 2024, accompanied by significant flooding in June.

Climate change impacts global agriculture, prohibiting crops from realising their full potential and, ss weather patterns grow increasingly unpredictable, yields suffer and production decelerates.

The reduction in coffee output can largely be attributed to these ongoing climate issues and is expected to continue if destabilised weather persists.

The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) Executive Director, Vanusia Nogueira comments: “I think (the end of the deficits) will depend a lot on this climate issue.” 

Severe weather conditions impact global coffee suppliers, lowering crop yield and hiking prices. Vietnam, the chief producer of Robusta, illustrates this with its own experience.

The nation had a drought during the 2023/24 crop year, creating the smallest crop in four years and a 20% drop to 1.472 MMT (million metric tonnes).