Climate Policy Support Tied to Attribution, Not Weather Exposure

Experiencing extreme weather alone doesn’t boost support for climate policies—what matters is whether people connect those events to climate change, a new study published in the journal Nature reveals.

Led by Viktoria Cologna at ETH Zurich, the study combined two global datasets: ETH’s CLIMADA model, which estimates how often countries experience extreme weather events, and Harvard’s Trust in Science and Science-related Populism (TISP) survey, which asked nearly 72,000 people in 68 countries whether they support climate policies and whether they think extreme weather is linked to climate change.

The study found broad global backing for climate policy—a finding aligned with earlier research showing that 89% of people globally want stronger political action on climate change. While people in African and Asian nations showed the highest support, countries like Australia, Costa Rica, and the United Kingdom reported average support. Support was below average in several European countries, including Czechia, Finland, and Norway.

Support also varied by policy: while only 22% and 29% of the global population strongly supported higher taxes on carbon-intensive foods and fossil fuels, respectively, 82% supported protecting forested lands. Expanding public transit and increasing the use of sustainable energy sources had strong backing from 64% and 75% of respondents, respectively.

Contrary to researchers’ expectations, direct experience of extreme weather generally did not translate into stronger support for climate policies—except in areas affected by wildfires. Other events such as floods, heatwaves, European winter storms, tropical cyclones, heavy rainfall, and droughts had no consistent effect. Heavy precipitation had the weakest link to increased support for climate policies.

Instead, belief that climate change is causing extreme weather strongly predicted support for climate action.

“Our data suggest that if individuals attribute extreme weather events to climate change, support for climate policies is higher, regardless of whether the events are more frequent,” the authors write.

They add that the reverse is also possible—that people who support climate policies are more likely to attribute extreme weather to climate change—and suggest future studies explore that possibility.

The results align with past research that assessed media reporting on extreme weather events in 10 countries. It found that news outlets tend to highlight fires, hurricanes, and storms more than heavy rainfall—possibly influencing public awareness of links between climate change and certain types of extreme weather.