Is climate persuasion a fool’s errand?

It happens every day. A friend or colleague talks enthusiastically about buying a new gas car, or shivers theatrically on a chilly day and says: “So much for global warming.” Now you’re faced with a choice. Do you engage them with facts and arguments or just smile neutrally and change the subject?

Climate change, perhaps, used to be a topic where reasoned discussion was possible, particularly if people were lacking basic facts about atmospheric chemistry and the scale of fossil fuel use. These days, it can be more of a conversational third rail than religion or sport. 

Here we tackle two intertwined questions. First, there’s now been two decades of research on environmental psychology. What have we learned about changing people’s minds on climate? But there’s a second, larger, question looming in the background: Does moving towards a decarbonized planet need everyone to buy into a science-based view anyway?

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Yes. The Conversation Is Over

1. The needle is stuck. Despite a decade of firestorms, scientific unanimity, and consistent messaging, the proportion of Americans who accept the reality of global warming has barely shifted over the past 10 years—it’s still only around 70%, according to the latest poll from George Mason University’s Center for Climate Change Communication. And of those, about a third think it’s mostly due to natural changes in the environment. (That’s lower than the rest of the world at 80%, but not by much). Remarkably, given the actual rise of climate disasters, the proportion of Americans who say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming actually decreased from about 70% in 2015 to 50% this year.