Climate office gives drought perspective

With April showers staying away, record hot temperatures in recent weeks, and rainfall deficits continuing to increase, “extreme” drought conditions expanded explosively across North Carolina this month.

The North Carolina Climate Office provided the following summary of an online N.C. Drought Management Advisory Council discussion on the drought on April 23.

While the past six weeks have been noticeably dry, the current dry spell dates back to late summer 2025. By mid-August, regular rainfall had ended and a quiet end to the hurricane season along the coast meant North Carolina didn’t get the usual tropical contribution to average precipitation.

A La Niña-affected winter brought typical dry conditions to the Southeast. Despite more frequent rain in February, there was widespread severe drought in North Carolina entering the spring. After abnormally dry, the levels of drought are moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional in the U.S. Drought Monitor’s classification system.

Since mid-March, a summer-like weather pattern with high pressure overhead has meant unseasonably warm temperatures and little rainfall. That intensified the drought and more than 40% of the state is now in extreme drought. (This includes all but far northeastern Wilkes and most of western N.C. Northeastern Wilkes is in severe drought.)

Extreme drought conditions tend to occur every 20 to 50 years on average in some portion of the state.

Parts of far western North Carolina were most recently in extreme drought in 2026-17, when there was a damaging fall fire season. The last widespread extreme drought elsewhere was during the state’s worst drought on record in 2007 and 2008.

This drought’s emergence may seem sudden — and a hot and dry April accelerated its development — it’s actually is a long-term phenomenon. Since last August, precipitation deficits in North Carolina have steadily grown to more than 12 inches, with barely half of normal precipitation in many areas.

This calendar year is also off to a record dry start in places like Charlotte, Monroe, Raleigh and Laurel Springs (and most of Wilkes), with each more than six inches below normal since Jan. 1. That reflects a lack of meaningful recharge over the winter and continuing dryness this spring.

This historic dryness and return of extreme drought are drawing comparisons to the 2007-08 drought, with similar overall rainfall deficits.

The biggest difference between the two droughts is their timing: the 2007-08 drought rapidly advanced during a hot, dry summer, while the current drought has taken shape mostly in the cool season, when evaporation rates and water demands are lower.

That’s why the 2007-level impacts haven’t occurred yet, despite the similar rainfall deficits.

The main impacts felt now include brown, slow-growing lawns and crops struggling to take root without supplemental irrigation, and amid low topsoil moisture levels that have taken a nosedive in recent weeks.

One of the first signs of the worsening drought this winter — and among the most alarming signs of its severity now — is streamflow. With minimal rain over the past six weeks, streamflows are at record lows for this time of year at nearly all U.S. Geological Survey monitoring gauges statewide.

Another sign of the entrenched dryness is very low groundwater levels. Among the North Carolina Division of Water Resources’ 85 Drought Indicator Wells, 20 are now at record low monthly levels, spanning from Bryson City in the west to Elizabeth City in the east. (None of the 20 are in Wilkes.)

Lakes and reservoirs are feeling the impacts due to the lack of rain and upstream inflows. Lake Norman is more than two feet below its target level. (As of April 24, W. Kerr Scott Reservoir was only an inch below its normal level of 1,030 feet above sea level.)

Wildfires

Spring is the primary fire season in North Carolina, with still-dormant fuels coming out of the winter burning easily before vegetation has fully greened up and leafed out. Drought makes these fuels drier and fire seasons worse. This spring was no exception.

According to preliminary statistics from the N.C. Forest Service, there were 4,224 wildfire incidents in 2026 through April 21, up the 10-year average of 2,614 incidents for the first four months of the year.

The largest fires so far include the 1,410-acre East Tower fire on the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge, this month’s 748-acre Rosindale Road fire in Bladen County and the late March Cane Creek Church Road that burned 574 acres in Wilkes County.

Several weather factors made this spring fire season worse. The ongoing drought is keeping dead fuels like fallen tree branches at record dry levels, especially in Helene-damaged areas strewn with debris and now difficult to access. Several frosty nights slowed the green-up process and windy days have helped spread newly started fires.

Those factors all prompted the N.C. Forest Service to implement a statewide burn ban in effect since March 28. This covers all outdoor burning, including backyard debris burns, campfires and fireworks.

Coming up

The latest forecast offers a bit of hope, but nothing close to drought-busting rainfall before the end of the month. A cold front brought rain Saturday and another was expected to bring rain Tuesday.

Current forecasts are showing weekly totals of a half-inch to an inch of rain in some parts of the state. That’s an improvement but still drier than weekly average rainfall this time of year.

The Climate Prediction Center’s eight to 14 day outlook through the first week of May tilts toward above-normal precipitation. It three-month outlook for May through July leans wetter for eastern North Carolina, but not the western part of the state.

After two consecutive La Niña winters, it’s now very likely that North Carolina will shift to the opposite phase, which El Niño, over the summer.

Initially, that may not be a good thing for the drought. Because it strengthens upper-level winds over the tropics that can shear apart developing storms, El Niño events tend to see a reduction in Atlantic tropical activity. Like last fall, that could deny North Carolina the tropical rainfall expected that time of year.

By late fall and early winter, more relief could arrive as El Niño’s primary atmospheric impacts kick in. A stronger jet stream anchored to the south should bring moisture and storm systems this way, which should mean wetter weather for at least a few months.

The public can help the N.C. State Climate Office by joining CoCoRaHS as a volunteer precipitation observer. In addition to making daily rainfall observations, CoCoRaHS observers can share weekly Condition Monitoring Reports that describe on-the-ground impacts to validate statewide drought assessments.

Bottom line

April 2026 is shaping up to be the warmest ever in Asheville, Charlotte, Raleigh and some other locales in the state, and one of the top-10 driest, with less than an inch of rain in most areas. (It will likely be the driest April on record in Wilkes.)

Without rain soon, the current trajectory is for more of North Carolina to be in extreme drought and perhaps part of the state experience exceptional drought. (Projections include Wilkes in areas that could transition to exceptional drought.)

If and when a wetter pattern emerges this year, it will take several months of consistently above-normal precipitation to make a major dent in current deficits, so the drought is likely here for the long haul.