Is ‘climate migration’ in NJ’s near future? | Video

Some 1.3 million people in New Jersey live in high-risk flood zones and could be forced from their homes in a wave of “climate migration,” according to a new study.

The study by Rebuild by Design — the same group that created Hoboken’s cutting-edge barrier system against floodwaters after Superstorm Sandy — says about half of those residents would likely need assistance to relocate.

“We’re sounding the alarm, and we’re saying, ‘Hey, let’s take a look at this before people suffer,’” said Amy Chester, director of Rebuild by Design.

“If we’re given a chance to decide whether we want to move now or maybe in 10 years, and we can plan our lives around it, then we will all be better off, and so will the state of New Jersey,” Chester said.

Over the next 25 years, severe flooding could threaten property worth $436 billion, erasing $6 billion in tax revenues for New Jersey cities and towns, according to the study.

Where could people go?

And those climate migrants? To stay close to family and jobs, they would most likely move somewhere close within New Jersey — compounding the state’s already-critical affordable housing shortage, the study said.

The report also offers possible remedies and options for the future, both individually and collectively.

“We can harden our homes, we can raise our homes. There’s a lot of things we can do in the short term that will allow us to live there for another generation,” Chester said. “Past that, we don’t know. But if we make those investments now, we’re all going to be a lot safer.”

‘The challenge is to get out ahead, recognize this is coming, and to make for a sort of an orderly migration.’ — Tim Dillingham, Littoral Society

Peter Kasabach, executive director of New Jersey Future, and other advocates also cited the state Department of Environmental Protection’s Blue Acres program, which just received a $3.2 million federal grant to buy out flood-prone homes. But Kasabach said officials need to recognize that any relocation raises serious equity issues.

“Something that the state is wrestling with — and really has to figure out — is an investment strategy,” he said. “It’s going to be more expensive and it’s going to take more time for people who have lower incomes, and it ultimately is not going to be very fair how things work out if left to their own devices.”

Income issues

Tom Herrington, with the New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium, noted that wealthy homeowners don’t worry about relocating.

“What struck me in this report was this [lower-income] population is primarily stuck. They don’t have the means to migrate away from the hazard, even if they were to have damage to your home… Where would they go?”

“So far what we’ve seen in terms of people moving from coastal areas, has been in response to disasters, more so than chronic flooding,” Herrington said.

‘We don’t believe that their projections are necessarily accurate; we think they’re overstated.’ — Ray Cantor, New Jersey Business & Industry Association

Tim Dillingham, executive director of the Littoral Society, said these issues need deep study and serious investment.

“The challenge is to get out ahead, recognize this is coming, and to make for a sort of an orderly migration,” he said. “Defend where it’s appropriate, and keep vital infrastructure in place. But it’s probably not a good idea to be continuing to intensify the development in these high-hazard areas along the shoreline.”

Solutions and disagreements

The Rebuild by Design report suggests a state environmental bond issue as one funding mechanism that several states, including New York, have employed. Municipalities are pressing for more discussion of the options.

“That’s the conversation I think we have to have, because this has to be a team effort in the current environment. The municipalities at most risk may have the least financial resources to prepare for that risk,” said Michael Cerra, executive director of the New Jersey State League of Municipalities.

Meanwhile, business leaders point to New Jersey’s already high cost of living and some disagree with the report’s predictions of climate migration.

“We don’t believe that their projections are necessarily accurate; we think they’re overstated,” said Ray Cantor of the New Jersey Business & Industry Association.

Cantor also rejects the state DEP’s sea-level rise estimates and its proposed rules to harden vulnerable infrastructure.

“There are solutions out there,” Cantor said. “There are ways we could do this — probably somewhat cost-effective — but we need to have the conversation. We don’t think it’s a matter of retreat or climate migrants.”