Climate Issues: Beyond What They Seem

Climate issues and their impacts are changing rapidly in the current scenario. These challenges extend beyond environmental concerns to shape international relations and social dynamics. Conflicts are emerging at both water and land borders, often rooted in resource scarcity. A closer look at past data reveals important patterns: for instance, the India–China border militarization is partly linked to the melting of Himalayan ice, while in the Chad Basin, the dramatic shrinkage of Lake Chad has intensified tensions between farmers and herders. Such cases highlight how climate change deepens social inequalities, disrupts livelihoods, and fuels migration, thereby contributing to geopolitical conflicts. From a sociological perspective, climate change is not only an environmental crisis but also a social one, reshaping power relations, exacerbating vulnerabilities, and redefining the meaning of security in everyday life.

Climate Change and National Security: A New Dimension

Climatic catastrophes gained prominence in the late 20th century, leading to the Rio Earth Summit (UNCED), which produced five major strategies: the UNFCCC, UNCCD, UNCBD, the Forest Principles, and Agenda 21. However, these conventions and protocols have largely failed to yield tangible outcomes. Notably, climate change mitigation only gained wider attention once the Global North had already advanced economically. This piece shifts the focus to a different dimension, examining how climate issues intersect with national security, both internal and external.

While touching upon the sensitive part of climate change, it is worth highlighting that the mushrooming growth of industries is a perennial factor causing both greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and influencing other climatic impacts. Indicating the growth of extractive institutions, Nobel Laureate Daron Acemoglu said, “These are the institutions that centralize the power and resources in the hands of a few elites”. While stating this aspect, it is no wonder to recognize the fact that how these lobbies have controlled the industries for their growth without thinking about the vulnerabilities faced by climate change victims. Victims of climate change are largely from the Global South, especially underserved populations who lack access to food, education, clean air, and clean water, often without even knowing the cause of their suffering. Beyond this, climate financing remains a critical concern. Despite the UNFCCC’s principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR), developed nations frequently fall short in their commitments. Their industrial growth and inadequate green funding ignore this principle, while emissions from sectors like cement, agriculture, textiles, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals worsen global health, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities.

Climate Extremes and Security Risks

Now, let us understand how the aspects mentioned above are causative factors of security issues, that has been induced by climate change of the era. The concept of national security has evolved since the early 20th century. Once limited to border issues, it now encompasses broader challenges, including climate change. This shift reflects how climate change fuels both internal and external security threats, often reinforcing one another.

Climate issues manifest through resource inaccessibility, stronger cyclones in the Indian Ocean, frequent wildfires, rising seas, rapid glacial melt, and phenomena like zombie ice and Atlantification, all threatening human and ecological stability. These disruptions also endanger national security. Starvation and lack of resources can trigger cross-border migration, creating external security challenges. Intensifying cyclones and rising temperatures force in-migration, often sparking internal conflicts. Both internal and external migration pressures heighten risks of conflict, loss of life, and resource depletion, further worsening vulnerability. To highlight wildfires as a consequential factor of climate change, the US can be the best example, where the rate of wildfires doubled between 1984 to 2015. Research states that a 1°C rise in temperature can increase the median burned area per year in some forests, like in California, Montana, and Oregon in the western US (e.g., the chaparral forest system in California). The reports at the World Economic Forum (Annual meeting 2025) held that a 1°C rise in temperature can accelerate interpersonal violence by 2% and inter-group conflict risk increased by 2.5% to 5%. This climatic variability has not spared India either. According to the Forest Survey of India (FSI), there are around 7,800 wildfire hotspots across the country, including in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, and the North-East. These wildfires have increased heat intensity, triggered heat waves, and contributed to glacial melting. ( FSI, Report April 2022) This will again exacerbate the existing vulnerabilities, like a scarcity of food due to the co-occurrence of drought and heatwave (induced by forest fire, like the Santa Ana wind, an already warm wind by nature, recently due to forest fire in West California, turns into a factor of heat wave in that region). This can lead to a clash among the people near the border area and raise security concerns.

Heat waves and glacial melting, as facets of climate change, directly affect human security. Rising temperatures cause water shortages and crop failures, triggering unrest. Glacial melt accelerates sea-level rise, displacing coastal populations and fueling cross-border tensions, such as refugee inflows at the India–Bangladesh border. Simultaneously, worsening air quality in Indian states undermines the fundamental right to clean air, reframing pollution as a human rights concern that can spark civil–political conflict. From a sociological perspective, these climate stressors deepen inequalities, reshape migration patterns, and intensify both internal and external security challenges, highlighting the urgent need to address the interplay between climate change and geopolitical dynamics.

Takeaway for India and the way ahead

In the last few decades, India has been facing major climate shocks and changing dynamics concerning national security, exacerbating the difficulties and acting as a threat multiplier. Variabilities caused by drought, water scarcity, food shortages, and other stressors can destabilize regional peace and create conditions that fuel the recruitment of insurgent groups. As far as geopolitical tension is concerned, the border issues could be ignited by these stressors as well. The river flowing between countries like India-China and India-Pakistan may lead to resource competition due to low rainfall caused by anomalies like El Niño and other such factors. Furthermore, the crop production jeopardized by climate catastrophes can lead to food scarcity and exacerbate the conflict. Hence, the military as well as the government need to adapt to these climate disorders. India, despite progress under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), still requires climate financing as a developing nation. National security challenges tied to climate variability can be addressed through strong economic diplomacy, especially as India positions itself as the voice of the Global South. The upcoming Brazil COP30 offers a critical opportunity for advancing technology transfer and climate finance for sustainable mitigation. Addressing climate change is thus not only an environmental imperative but also a strategic necessity for security and peace, requiring proactive policies, global cooperation, and inclusive adaptation.

Abhijit Pattanaik B.Tech. (Mechanical Engineering), Independent Public Policy Researcher
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Ansuman Das (PhD Scholar), School of Humanities and Social Sciences, National Institute of Science Education and Research, OCC of Homi Bhabha National Institute, Pin Code: 752050, Bhubaneswar.

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