Climate change will make air pollution worse—here's how - Phys.org

Climate change will make air pollution worse-here's how

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Climate change will make air pollution worse—here's how

A new study finds climate change is likely to make upward spikes of ozone at ground level worse by 2050, which could result in many parts of the United States falling out of compliance with air quality standards and increasing risks to public health.

Ozone is a reactive gas that consists of three oxygen atoms. And while it can be naturally occurring, at ground level it is often formed by the interaction of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)—which are both air pollutants.

"Climate change affects ozone formation through a complex set of factors, but warmer temperatures are correlated with increases to ozone in polluted areas," says James East, first author of a paper on the study published in Earth's Future. East is a former Ph.D. student at North Carolina State University who is now a researcher at Harvard University.

"That means areas that already have higher levels of air pollution of VOCs and NOx will likely see increases in ozone as average temperatures go up. What's more, climate change is expected to increase naturally occurring VOC emissions in some parts of the U.S., such as the Southeast, exacerbating the challenge."

Increases in ozone are important because ground-level ozone can cause a wide array of health problems, including decreased lung function and inflammation of airways, contributing to hundreds of thousands of deaths each year.

"It's pretty well-established that climate change will increase ozone pollution, but there has been a tremendous amount of uncertainty regarding what that increase might look like," says Fernando Garcia Menendez, corresponding author of the work and an associate professor of environmental engineering at NC State.

"Our goal with this work was to quantify the range of outcomes and get a much clearer picture of how climate change will affect ozone pollution events in the U.S."

"Atmospheric chemistry is complex, and climate change affects the rate of chemical reactions, the amount of ozone precursors present, and how long the ozone will linger in the environment," Garcia Menendez says.

"We built on a variety of existing models and incorporated statistical tools that allow us to account for this wide array of variables to look at ozone pollution in the years ahead."

Specifically, the researchers looked at how often ozone levels would exceed air quality standards designed to protect public health, how far ozone levels would overshoot the standards, and how that may change by 2050.

The study's findings are presented as a range, because climate scientists still have some uncertainty about how sensitive the climate is to changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases.

More information: James D. East et al, Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity, Earth's Future (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003941

Journal information: Earth's Future

Provided by North Carolina State University